By the Numbers: Spring flings?

Imagine if there was a Spring Training Hall of Fame just for players who put up eye-popping numbers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues. Strolling through the hallowed halls, you could gaze upon the busts of springtime greats like Brad Eldred, Greg Dobbs, Chris Shelton, Reggie Abercrombie and Gabe Gross. As these recent inductees help us to realize, greatness in March doesn't always translate into a regular major league job, much less a Cooperstown career.

Yet for every Eldred and Abercrombie, there's a Shane Victorino, who leveraged a hot March 2006 into a Phillies roster spot, and then a starting job he has yet to relinquish. Victorino has been a boon to Fantasy owners as well, as evidenced by his ability to deliver runs and stolen bases. Chances are that most of this year's March superstars will go the way of Chris Shelton, but perhaps there's another Victorino lurking among this year's candidates. Below are a half-dozen position players who could parlay their hot month into a roster spot, and maybe something more.

Before we assess this latest crop of spring phenoms, here are just a few notes on how we are evaluating their chances for Fantasy success. We will review the three-year trends for how often they walk and strikeout. The trend for Isolated Power, a measure of how many extra bases a typical at-bat generates, is also tracked. (For those of you scoring at home, it is calculated as the difference between SLG and BA.) Finally, speed is accounted for with stolen bases. To maintain consistency, I have included stats from only one level (e.g., AAA, Major Leagues) for each year, using data from the highest level at which a player accumulated at least 100 ABs. No data from levels below AA were included.

Brian Anderson, OF, Chicago White Sox: Back in 2005, Anderson looked like the successor to Aaron Rowand in center field. While he struck out too much, he had decent power that could still develop further. It turns out that Anderson has been no Rowand, not even in Triple-A. His power has stalled, he continues to strike out, and meanwhile, Rowand's Isolated Power last year ballooned to an impressive 0.206. Anderson's main competition for an outfield spot comes from Carlos Quentin. While it remains to be seen what Quentin can do with a full-time major league job, we know that last year in Triple-A, he compiled a 0.226 Isolated Power average. This was substantially higher than Anderson's and Quentin is a year younger. The advantage goes to Quentin, and Anderson becomes another distant March memory.

Elliot Johnson, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay: Johnson has bowled over more than Yankee catching prospect Francisco Cervelli this spring. He is off to a 15-for-29 start and leads the team with 12 runs scored. This is good news for a player who managed a measly .207 BA in Triple-A last year. Even in his down year, he showed speed and good power for a middle infielder. If Johnson can become even a decent contact hitter, he has the speed and power to hit in the .280s. At 24, he still has the potential to grow into that kind of player. All he needs is an opportunity, so keep him in mind should Akinori Iwamura or B.J. Upton wind up on the DL.

Mike Morse, OF, Seattle: Mariner Morse has logged some time with the big club over the last three years, particularly back in 2005, when he played 55 games at shortstop. Now trying to catch on as a fourth outfielder, Morse is making his case with a 20-for-38 start. Being a reserve outfielder is a good gig when one of your regulars is the injury prone Brad Wilkerson, but does Morse have the skills to stick if he gets an opportunity to play? The trend below suggests that the Mariners are better off waiting for a healthy Wilkerson, who will walk more, run more, and hit for much more power.

David Murphy, OF, Texas: Here is another fourth outfield candidate. Playing behind Marlon Byrd, Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley, there may not be a better place to be a starting outfielder-in-waiting. The opportunity for playing time should be there, but no part of his game is strong enough for him to make a lasting impression. He is Matt Murton's lefty twin who likes to steal the occasional base. So despite the .400-plus BA and the four home runs this spring, he’s a fourth outfielder.

Angel Pagan, OF, New York Mets: The Mets' starting outfield situation is pretty well set, and Endy Chavez looks to have a stranglehold on the top backup spot. Still, Pagan put together two different minor-league seasons where he swiped more than 50 bases. Could his .351 spring BA catapult him into some playing time, where he could be useful as a cheap source of steals? Even if he works his way into a platoon situation with Ryan Church, it is unlikely he would play enough to get more than 15 steals. Lots of whiffs make for a low batting average, so there would be little payoff in rostering Pagan.

Eugenio Velez, UTL, San Francisco: Velez is speedy like Pagan, but with less power and only one year of experience at Double-A or above. Don't be deceived, though. Velez may be green, but he's not young, as he turns 26 this May. He is hitting over .300 in spring training so far and is showing off his speed with 10 steals and two triples. The combination of his speed and the possibility of playing time on a weak Giants squad makes Velez an intriguing pick. However, until he can show that he can make better contact, hit for more power, or at least walk a little more often, his steals will be limited. Without a hefty total of stolen bases, Velez has no real Fantasy value.

As it is in most springs, the stars of the 2008 Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues appear to be flashes in the pan. Of this group, Elliot Johnson looks to have the best chance for eventual success, so even if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, he is worth keeping an eye on. And we're not yet done with our search for spring greatness that will carry over into summer. Next week, we will scan the rosters for spring pitching phenoms.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.