Number Crunchers: Steals

Last season, 371 players stole a base in the major leagues. Actually, those players stole more than just a base. They also ended up stealing Fantasy value away from each other with every theft.

Looking at the raw numbers of the past eight seasons gives us a clear understanding that the return of the stolen base is making the power hitters more valuable in Fantasy play.

Before we break down steals, let's first take a look at how the power category has gone up and down over the past few seasons.

Last season, there were only 26 hitters that smacked at least 30 home runs. That number is the lowest since the 1995 season -- the first year back from the player's strike. In 2006, 34 batters hit at least 30 homers, back down to 27 in '05, and then up again to 37 in '04.

Actually, there were 200 fewer home runs hit last year compared to 2006.

Power has slowly been replaced by speed over the past few years. As a matter of fact, 42 hitters stole at least 20 bases last year -- the highest number in the past seven seasons. In '06, there were 35 players that reached that number.

It's a team game

Before we break down the individuals, let's take a look at speed from a team perspective to try and get an understanding of this shift from power to speed.

There were a total of 2,918 stolen bases last year -- up about 150 steals from the previous season. That's a big number, but not as big as the difference between '07 and '03. Last season, there were 345 more steals than there were in '03. That, my Fantasy friends, is a big difference. That's a 13.4-percent increase in total steals within a five-year period.

Why is there such a difference? Is it just a matter of faster players entering the league (Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Grady Sizemore), or is it the retirement/decline of some big hitters (Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and Jeff Bagwell), or a combination of both?

Obviously, the boost in power in the late '90s can partially be attributed to steroids and HGH, so is it also fair to say the drop in power is correlated to the league's efforts in removing steroids from the game? Then again, the first player suspended under baseball's new steroid policy was Tampa Bay's Alex Sanchez -- who hit a total of six homers in his career. Sanchez also stole 52 bases in one season -- ironically enough, it was during the '03 season, which we mentioned earlier as the low point in steals over the past eight years.

Fleet-footed teams

What about team managers? Obviously, Mets manager Willie Randolph's stolen base numbers benefit from having Reyes in his lineup, but even without his 78 steals, the Mets still would have ranked sixth in the majors!

Baltimore led the AL a season ago with 144 stolen bases, but it was the Angels that led the league in stolen base attempts (194). Brian Roberts and Chone Figgins led their respective teams in steals, but it's interesting to note that Figgins stole 41 bases in only 442 at-bats because of a couple broken fingers. Angels manager Mike Scioscia likes to run -- and he has to run that much considering the fact that, outside of Vladimir Guerrero, he doesn't have a power hitting team. Expect Figgins to eclipse 60 steals this season, if he can stay healthy.

And how about the Phillies? They're one of the best slugging teams in the league, thanks in part to a bandbox stadium, and only one major league team (Milwaukee) hit more homers last year. But manager Charlie Manuel loves to move his players along on the basepaths with steal attempts. Only three teams had more steals last year than the Phillies' 138. Jimmy Rollins (41) and Shane Victorino (37) for the Phillies, along with Roberts (50) and Corey Patterson (37) are the only pairs of teammates in the top 11 in the SB category.

Slow-footed teams

On the other end of this spectrum, we see teams like Oakland (52 steals) and St. Louis (56), whose teams could be beaten in the 40-yard dash by a group of Fantasy writers. And then there's San Diego, who you would think would have high steal numbers, since their hitters can't reach the fences for the most part, but instead, they rank second to last with 55 total.

But one team I found interesting was the Houston Astros, who were 25th in the majors with 65 steals in '07. Only Carlos Lee (10) and Hunter Pence (11) had double-digit steals. What I want to point out though, is that they recently traded for speedster Michael Bourn from Philadelphia, who could hit leadoff in Houston. Bourn snatched up 18 bases (top 50) in 119 at-bats in partial time last year, which would seem to indicate that a 600-AB season could translate to 90 steals. That's not realistic to expect of course, but 40-45 steals isn't out of the question if he can stay patient at the plate and get on base regularly.

Looking back a couple seasons ago, Houston sent Willy Taveras only 42 times in 2006, for 33 successful steals. Granted, it was a different manager, but Cecil Cooper didn't run much more than the man he replaced, Phil Garner, late last season. Actually, Cooper's Astros stole 11 bases in September of '07, which is about what Garner's Astros were averaging in each of the preceding five months. As much as I like Bourn, it looks like he'll be more of a 100-run scorer, that lets the men behind him (Pence, Lance Berkman and Lee) get him to second base and beyond.

Looking at individual players

How strong was Reyes' season? The last player to steal more than 78 bases in a single season was Rickey Henderson in 1988. He stole 93 bags that year, with Vince Coleman on his heels with 81 steals of his own. Montreal's Marquis Grissom matched Reyes with 78 steals in 1992, but no one else has eclipsed that mark since I was getting turned down by cute cheerleaders in high school. (Although, in the strike-shortened season of 1994, Kenny Lofton stole 60 bases in 112 games -- which projects out to 79 steals in a 162-game season.)

Reyes stole 23 bases in August, once Luis Castillo arrived in a trade with Minnesota. And since Castillo takes a high number of pitches, it allowed Reyes ample opportunities to nab second base. But he slowed considerably in September and hit just .205 that month. A 60-65 steal season is a reasonable expectation from him, which is still good enough to lead the majors most years.

And much has been made over Russell Martin's 21 steals as a catcher with the Dodgers. That number last year was three times the second-place backstop (Joe Mauer, seven). Actually, Martin was caught stealing more bases (nine) than any other catcher even attempted. But are those extra 14 stolen bases enough to push him past Victor Martinez in Fantasy play? It gets him close, certainly, but Martinez's power is still too much to overcome. Martinez hit 25 homers (second place was 20) and knocked in 114 runs as the only catcher to eclipse 100 RBI. Plus, with Martin being a young catcher, he's not going to be able to keep up that pace with catcher's knees and the aches that comes with the job. Ask Jason Kendall.

Adding and subtracting names

I mentioned Rickey Henderson earlier, but outside of him, Lofton and maybe a handful of others, stealing bases has generally been a young man's game. So some veterans that stole at least 30 bags last year that could fall off considerably this season are: Eric Byrnes (32), Figgins (30), Julio Lugo (32), Kazuo Matsui (32), Juan Pierre (age 30), Dave Roberts (35), Brian Roberts (30) and Ichiro Suzuki (34).

In that same vein, some rookies that have 30-SB potential this season include: Atlanta's Josh Anderson, Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox, Oakland's Carlos Gonzalez, Cameron Maybin of the Marlins, Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus of the Cardinals.

Numbers to shoot for

In Rotisserie play, steals are the equivalent of saves for the most part -- a category generally only filled by a few players on every roster. But how many steals do you need in order to win, place in the top three or even the top half of the category? Figure if you get close to 200 steals, you own the category. If your roster steals around 180 bases, you should land in the top three. And 140 stolen bases last year would have kept your head above water in the top six in that category. If your roster is on pace for just 100 bases, you might as well trade any speed guys you have because you'll get one point when you finish 12th with 100 steals or 10 steals. At least that way you can bolster up other spots in your roster.

Also, in Rotisserie play, you want to be mindful of how your speedsters are affecting your other categories. It's doubtful they'll be giving you much in the power categories (HR and RBI), but the fact that they are getting into scoring position every time they steal a base should help you in runs scored. So batting average is the one category that base-stealers can cost you the most. Among the 28 players that stole at least 25 bases last year, there were eight players that hit below .270: Coco Crisp (.268), Julio Lugo (.237), Jerry Owens (.267), Corey Patterson (.269), Dave Roberts (.260), Ryan Theriot (.266), Rickie Weeks (.235) and Chris Young (.237). Ask a Fantasy Baseball veteran how painful it was to endure Brian Hunter's 44-steal season in 1999 with the Mariners -- when he was batting just .231.

In Head-to-Head play, check your rules to see if "caught stealing" deducts points in your scoring system. If not, and you get two points per steal, you should be able to rack up a ton of points with a couple speedsters, once the sluggers are off the board. And when you figure that base-stealers are also more apt to hit more triples -- and stretch some singles into doubles -- then speed guys get even more value.

If your league does deduct for "caught stealing," here are the players that have more than 30 net steals (successful steals minus caught stealing): Reyes (57), Juan Pierre (49), Hanley Ramirez (37), Eric Byrnes (43), Brian Roberts (43), Carl Crawford (40), Hanley Ramirez (37), Shane Victorino (37) and Jimmy Rollins (35). The following players have more the 10 caught steals attempts: Reyes (21), Pierre (15), Ramirez (14), Figgins (12), Crawford (10) and Sizemore (10).

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