Dramatic Effects

who cares about football...lol...jk.... I agree with a lot of things that are being said about the negative things happenening in the program I have 2 thoughts

1. succession plan

Why is this becoming so poular the last couple years.  call them "coaches in waiting".  I think it works in some situations, but sometimes it isn't great.  AZ doesn't have to figure out who they're going to hire today for when Lute retires. No one really knows when he's going to be done.  I don't personally beleive they need to find out who their next head coach is going to be... and I have a feeling they won't make that mistale again (COUGH.. Kevin O'neil... COUGH)

2. Recruits still getting to the league

AZ is still having players get to the NBA.. Let's face it, the majortiy of players want to go to a school who is going to better prepare them to play professional (NBA).  I believe U of A has the most NBA players behind UCONN in the NBA...

Succession Plan:

I think that Arizona needs to avoid a succession plan, period. This has become a popular trend recently to avoid any temporary decline or lull in talent for elite schools. When done right it is quite effective. However, for the most part it causes a lot of confusion and chaos. It's okay not to have a successor lined up, UNC didn't when Dean Smith took off, and they're doing just fine.

By starting a succession plan, it says that Livengood and the University believe that 73 and growing is too old, and that Olson isn't capable of handling this on his own. Not a good recruiting scenario if your own employer is saying that. When the question arises about who will replace Olson, since that will new recruits will experience in the coming years, Arizona simply needs to be dedicated to hiring the best coach available, and make that known.

There's no simple solution, by any extent of the imagination, but a succession plan where the future coach is the AHC, is probably the worst thing Arizona could look to do.

I agree 100% Naterb... thanks for repeating what i said...lol...as for this hurting the recruiting process, yes it probably doesn't help.. but assuming Budinger leaves this season (who knows for certain), we only need 2 more guys for our 2009 class assuming Gaddy stays committed... I believe our seniors next season are onobun, bagga, and tangara... remember only one of them plays... so this could be seen as a positive... Here's the major downside: if Hill and Jennings (and Chase??) were to jump to the NBA, then this might be a major issue... just trying to put a positive spin on things... not to look to far ahead, but someone brought it up.. and it's a good point

Naterb, since you mentioned UNC... take a look @ their 2009 class already... depending on the site you look at...I believe they have 4-5 star recruits already committed... How the Wear bros. got out of the hands of UCLA and U of A is a little surprising, but I don't know much about that situation and UNC obviously is a phenomenal school

I can't remember a situation like this, where this far into the off-season there are still so many unknowns.  And, in the case of UA, the results of those unknowns may be the difference between a top 10-15 program and one that misses the tournament all together.  Here's how I see it (and I'm assuming Pastner's gone, since that's what I'm hearing):

Best case

Budinger and Wise return, Jennings does what's necessary to qualify, UA hires Wyking Jones to replace Pastner.  If all of this happens, we'd have a very solid starting five next year with some depth and a much-improved coaching staff.  We'd likely have to endure some bumps early in the season because of youth and a tough schedule, but come the Pac 10, the guys would have some big game experience, be used to playing with each other and be comfortable with the system.  A starting lineup of Jennings, Wise, Budinger, Hill and Withey would be solid.  Or, Olson could opt to go with Jennings, Budinger, Horne, Hill and Withey, with Wise coming off the bench, and that would be solid as well.  Recruiting would pick back up, both because of renewed success on the court, but also because of an improved staff and Jones' ties to the AAU circuit.

Worst case

Budinger stays in the draft, Wise transfers to Houston, Texas or Baylor, Jennings doesn't qualify and UA hires Reggie Geary to replace Pastner.  If this happens, there's no way - in my mind - that UA makes the tournament.  They'd have no true point guard, no experience at the 2 and limited experience at the 3, and very little depth from 1-5.  Our starting five would likely be Lavender, Johnson, Horne, Hill and Withey and, while there's some talent there, we'd have a point guard playing out of position (and a true freshman at that), a sophomore shooting guard with very little experience and very little depth behind them.  In fact, we'd have NO other guards unless we picked up another 2008 player, and there's not much left out there.  Recruiting would continue to suffer, as elite players would see the last three years as a sign that UA is no longer among the elite, and we'd have no more strong ties to the AAU circuit with Pastner going to Memphis.

My guess

Budinger stays in the draft, Wise transfers to Texas, Jennings  does qualify and UA hires Wyking Jones to replace Pastner.  I still think Budinger's gone and the longer it takes to solidify the coaching staff and instill some stability in the program, the less confident I am that Wise is going to stay.  That said, I do believe that Jennings will qualify (as I mentioned in an earlier post, I don't think the work he has to do is much different, if at all, than the work other elite HS players have to do at this point.  I also think UA hires Wyking Jones as they'll realize he's critical for future recruiting.  Where would all of that leave us?  We'd likely start Jennings, Lavender, Horne, Hill and Withey, with Onobun, Negedu, Johnson and Jacobson coming off the bench.  We'd obviously be very young, with three true freshman and a sophomore in the starting lineup, and very thin with just one backup guard, one backup center and two who could back up the 3 and 4 spots.  However, that would be a very talented and athletic group that could do well in Olson's system (although the lack of a deep bench would likely wear them out by the end of the year).  I do think recruiting would get back on track and within a year or two, UA would be back to where it belongs among the top programs in the country.

On a somewhat related note, I heard today that Renardo Sidney, in Tucson for the Cactus Classic, is "really feeling Arizona" right now.  Needless to say, he would be a huge get for us.