Ok, We're officially 1/4 of the way through the season - well at the middle of the 5th inning tonight I guess will be officially 1/4 but ...
So time for a bit of an evaluation I believe. First a quick positive / negative area, then some grades. I'll start with the negatives and get them out of the way.
Negatives for this season so far
1. Our play vs the Nats and Pirates - ugg. 4-5 vs Wash and 2-5 vs Pitt. Not good.
2. Injuries. Lets face it, we all knew we have a bunch of older guys and some younger guys, but this list of people who have missed time is extremely long for 1/4 of the season: Soriano, Gonzalez (ok he's from last year, but is still missing), Hampton (expected), Smoltz, Glavine, James, Carlyle, Reyes(blister), Moylan, Teixeira (back), Kelly Johnson (back, knees), Prado (finger), Chipper (groin), Kotsay (back - might just have been to give him a day or so rest though), B. Pena (back), and Infante. And Hudson had the mysterious 2 or 3 game stretch from the flu where he wasn't himself, and Francoeur has been playing through an Ankle injury. Pretty much Blanco, Diaz, McCaan (and he fouled one off the top of his foot), Jurrjens, Escobar, and some relievers are the only ones to stay healthy for the year so far.
3. 1 run losses. 11 out of our 20 losses have been by 1 run. Don't know why everyone is making such a big fuss over this - I mean would it be better if we were being blown out? But still, it does bring up certain questions of clutch play - we seem to be able to pull within 1 and then not finish it, or we seem to not be able to hold onto a tie or a 1 run lead, and blow it instead.
4. Road play - awful, awful road trips. The majority of our injuries are coming on the road, and our record on the road is 6-16 (27% win rate) - not good. Hopefully we can chalk some of this up to some bad playing conditions and some of the injuries.
5. Diaz - I'm a bit dissappointed. I was one of the ones who believed he should play every day. I still think he earned the chance, but I truly believe that he probably is a career platoon player. I know its a small sample size, but its enough to show a bit of a trend, and with Blanco's play it doesn't hurt to have him in a platoon situation.
Ok now on to the optomistic side of me and the positives.
Positives:
1. Chipper. Wow. I don't know if I've ever seen someone as hot as he is. Talk about taking a team on his shoulders and carrying us. We'd be 8 games under .500 if he wasn't so hot.
2. Pitching. Even after giving up 16 runs in Philly this past series we are still 1st in ERA in the NL. This is quite an accomplishment when you consider we've lost Moylan, and Soriano from the pen, and Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, Carlyle, Reyes, and James have all had health issues from one degree to another. Smoltz's loss really hurts.
3. Offense. We are a streaky offense who hasn't really played well yet. Which should scare other teams to death. For me I look at the fact that we haven't really played well as an offense yet for an extended period, and yet we are at .500. This tells me that our pitching is doing superb, and once Tex begins coming out of his beginning of the year dulldrums (and the back strain), Chipper comes back, etc. We should be fine.
4. Bullpen. For not having a closer any more, and not having solid roles out there, they've done a very good job.
5. Bennett - the man has closed, started, long relieved, setup - he has more IP than everyone except Jurrjens, Hudson, and Glavine and has a nice 3.66 era. He's going to give up some runs, and isn't going to blow you away night after night, but he's done a solid job, and has been the glue that's kept us together through all of these injuries.
6. Jurrjens - wow. I love this kid. He is exciting to watch, and will be a solid player for years to come. What a steal in this offseason.
7. Home record. 14-4. Now thats solid. Lets just hope the NL wins the all star game so we can have home field advantage in the series ;-) ok maybe I'm getting ahead of myself there.
8. McCaan - nice start. The average is back up to where it was 2 years ago showing that the injury last year did indeed contribute to his lower production.
9. Kotsay - anyone question the Devine trade now? I know we'd have Devine for longer, and Kotsay is a short term deal, but did anyone think he'd play the defense he has and hit .300? I'd say he's replacing Andruw nicely.
10. Strikeouts - lowest in the league. I think its cutting into our agressiveness to some extent though. Its a hard balance to find though being agressive, yet not overly so. It drives me nuts to see Francoeur or Diaz hacking at a first pitch after a pitcher has just missed with 7 straight to walk 2 guys in a row. But I do see the logic in the fact that he may try to just lay a fastball in there to get strike 1 and so it might be the best pitch to really smash.
11. Stolen bases - we don't do a lot of stealing, but we choose our moments well. We're successfull at a good rate, and thus we don't run into outs. Of course if we can't drive em in with clutch hits it really won't matter.
12. Norton - nice pickup. Some quality clutch at bats so far.
Ok, now onto the Grades.
Starting Pitching - B
They've lost Smoltz and Hampton most likely for they year, and have had James and Glavine on the DL as well. Hudson had the mysterious 2 or 3 game flu symptoms, and Carlyle is now out for a while. But through all of that they have given us a chance to win each and every night. Its due to them that we have 11 one run losses instead of 11 more blowouts. Turn 4 of those games around by some timely offense and we are sitting on top.
Relief - B
I know they've blown some leads, but they've had to pitch quite a bit of innings once again due to pitchers leaving via injuries. Couple this with Soriano and Moylan going down and theyve done a great job. Campillo was a breath of fresh air when we needed it desparately. It just has a different feel to it. It's not like it was in past years where 6 or 7 of Hudson or Smoltzs good efforts would be given up by the pen.
Offense - C+
Good average. Not so good clutch. We seem to pile on runs when we don't need them and then go 2 or 3 games where we just can't push the guys across the plate. Too many left on base. I like the changes Cox has made in the order with Escobar hitting 1 and Kotsay 2. Kelly should be more comfortable in the 7 hole as well. Hopefully this Chipper injury won't slow him down too much, and Tex will wake up soon. A slow start is one thing, 1/4 of the season gone is another. Of course he still has an ops of .752, so a sizzling summer will still give him a great year statwise. We need to do better in the clutch.
Defense A-
We had some early miscues that lead to some losses, but since then our defense has been very good. Our outfield arms are superb. Even Diaz made a great throw last night. It really helps our pitchers when guys can't take that extra base without being thrown out. Escobar's range is much better than Renteria's is, and Teixeira is a nice target to throw to. Other than Kotsay forgetting how many outs there were one game, there haven't been many mental errors either which means they guys are focused.
Looking forward.
I look forward to our bullpen. If Smoltz does indeed go into the pen as a closer, and Soriano and Gonzalez can come back. We should have 2 dominant setup guys and a top tier closer (providing he can slide back seamlessly into that role). Add in Bennet as long relief, Campillo, Acosta, Boyer and Ohman, and you have a solid pen.
I look forward to watching our offense gel. We've seen flashes of brilliance, amid the mediocrity. Chippers play has been outstanding, and one has to wonder how many more wins we'd have if Tex was hitting well with Chipper on base so much.
Lets face it, at the start of the year most of us thought the Braves might win 92 games at the most. Several were saying the 84-88 mark was more realistic. Right now we have to win 11 more games than going .500. I think that is entirely possible. I'm not sure if we can compete with the D-backs (they look solid), but I feel that we are as good as or better than every other team in the NL. A lot of things will have to go right for the Braves just to make the playoffs (can you believe those Marlins?). Smoltz will either have to come back as a starter or will have to be a dominant closer. I don't think we can do it without him. A couple of other bats will have to click besides Chipper and Escobar. McCaan is doing well, and Francoeur has been hot of late. Tex will need to do better as will Kelly Johnson.
I know the old - losers make excuses and winners make plays slogan, and I believe the Braves have been doing that. The Mets, Phillies and Marlins aren't going to cry for all our injuries and feel badly for us. That being said, to go 20-20 with as many guys as we've had out is impressive to me, and when they come back I think we have good cause to be optomistic.
Come on Bravo's lets go 29-11 over then next 40 games and show the rest of the league that we are a contender this year!
Go Braves '08!!!
