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The .500 Fallacy


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The .500 Fallacy
-
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:May 25, 2007

May 2, 2008 1:54 pm
But every game difference in the W or L column represents 1/2 game.

Only in correlation to records of other teams, not to the team in of itself.

The over/under .500 theory is not based upon how another team does compared to you. Its only about your team's performance.


The .500 Fallacy
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Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 10, 2006

May 2, 2008 3:54 pm
Every game in the win/loss column represents 1 game, not 1/2. The 1/2 in the standings  represents differences in games played from team to team. When every team has played a full 162 games there are no 1/2 games in the standings. By cowboys theory a team that started 1-0 in the season would be 1/2 game over .500. does MLB play 4 1/2 inning games. NO.  this applys for every odd numbered game. His theory is wrong. His math is right, but it is not the right math to use in this situation.

The .500 Fallacy
-
Reputation:82
Level:All-Star
Since:Feb 22, 2008

May 2, 2008 5:23 pm

So what your saying is that if my team is 11-16 I would hav had to win an additional 2.5 of my previous games to be a .500 team.  Aaaaaah I finally understand thatnk you so much.

I think the problem with this country is not our understanding of basic mathematics.  It is our lack of reading comprehension.  Since this mathematic function requires you to divide by two, every factor in the funtion loses half of its value as i showed in my game-by-game example.  er go, one game only equals half a game in relation to the .500 mark.  So if your team is 11-16 they would have had to win 2.5 of the games they already played.  because they have played an odd number of games.  If you have played an odd number of games, it is impossible to be at .500.  how many wins/losses it takes to get to .500 is a different stat than the over/under .500 stat.  i know you won't understand this but that's ok


The .500 Fallacy
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Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 24, 2006

May 2, 2008 5:33 pm

how many wins/losses it takes to get to .500 is a different stat than the over/under .500 stat.

Wow. You basically called everyone who does not agree with you dumb, then you end your post with the above quote. What you said is 100% incorrect. The number of games you are +/- .500 is EXACTLY how many games you would need to win or lose to get to .500.

If a team is 11-16, they are 5 games under .500 because eleven minus sixteen equals negative five.

If that team were to go on a 5 game winning streak, they would be at exactly .500

There is no division necessary.

Apparently it is you that does not understand.


The .500 Fallacy
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Reputation:82
Level:All-Star
Since:Feb 22, 2008

May 2, 2008 6:11 pm

dude,

your entire argument is based on future events!  let's look at this another way.  say you are unemployed.  you apply for a job as a salesman.  at this moment in time, you ARE unemployed due to past circumstances.  you WILL BE a salesman due to future circumstances.  now let's apply this to our situation.  if your record is 20-10.  what circumstances have to happen for you to GET TO .500 has nothing to do with your CURRENT DISTANCE FROM .500.  .500 is winning half of your games SO FAR.  half of your games SO FAR is 15.  er go, you are 5 games below .500.  future events have nothing to do with current position in time and space mathematically.  so mathematically, your future games have no bearing on your position in relation to the .500 mark.


The .500 Fallacy
-
Reputation:82
Level:All-Star
Since:Feb 22, 2008

May 2, 2008 6:14 pm
if you're team is 20-10 they are 5 games over (and i meant to say over in the previous post) .500 and 10 consecutive wins from getting to .500.  it's two different mathematical statements!  if your team is 11-16 they are 2.5 games below .500 and 5 consecutive wins from .500

The .500 Fallacy
-
Reputation:82
Level:All-Star
Since:Feb 22, 2008

May 2, 2008 6:16 pm
since i don't know how else to say it and you aren't gonna change my mind and i'm apparently not gonna change yours, this is all pointless.  see you around