powered by Google  
  Track your favorite teams and players.
Free membership, Register Now
Already a member, Log In
 


Community | Help
Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF Sports News
Home    Fantasy    NFL  |  MLB  |  NBA  |  NHL  |  College FB  |  College BK  |  Golf  |  Racing  |  Tennis  |  Cycling  |  MMA  |  More
CBS College  |  High School  |  Mobile  |  Shop
Community Home | My Profile | My Blog | Groups | My Settings | My Account | Member Search | Blog Search | About Community
 

Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF


View Message Board ·  Go to Team PageViews:      


Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:94
Level:All-Star
Since:Sep 15, 2006

May 2, 2008 8:27 am

Nice to hear from you again  " Repeat " it's been awhile since we spoke.  It appears you don't agree we with me and also the majority of the others writing on this board.  We all are just throwing out ideas and opinions. We just want the White Sox to win.

 

I am still in shock at how many people don't understand basic concepts of winning baseball.  It is really hard to score runs when you aren't on base.  

 

I guess I'm just not as smart as you.  We are "assuming"  that Owens will do a better job at lead-off then Swisher and he will add a dimension that they don't have now, a base stealer.   White Sox need to make changes before it gets to late.  Please don't go into shock, no one wants that. 

I do know what you are saying, the White Sox rely on the long ball to win. We all are trying to come up with other ways to score runs, I would bet the Ozzie is too.  I know you don't think Owens can help, that may be true. But, he showed signs last September that he can help "manufracure" runs.

 

The problem is not Swisher, it is Konerko, Thome, Dye and Uribe.

We all know that, that is not a unique concept. but those guys aren't going anywhere, we hope they will do better, I don't think there is anyone on this board that disagrees with that statement.

Do you think it could just be that guys aren't hitting? 

YES!    I think they should and can do better.  Their careers shouldn't be over yet as you apparently think they are.  Konerko is only 34 years old!

 

The idea of sitting Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko or Jim Thome in favor of Jerry Owens is possibly the worst idea I've ever heard.

I think you are misinterpreting what I am saying.  ASSUMING they bring Owens up , I know, that hasn't been estabilshed yet, or may never be, I'm saying that with an OF of Quentin, Owens and Dye and Swisher at 1st Base,  Thome or Konerko one of them wouldn't be in the line-up, or if Konerko DH's Thome sits , Dye sits when Swisher plays RF, thats all I meant.   Ozzie has said he wants to rest those guys more.   That's all it was, so you don't think they should rest Thome, Konerko or Dye??

Have a good day Repeat.....

 


Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 30, 2006

May 2, 2008 9:03 am

As I am sure you all now if there is a stolen base threat on base the hitters are more likely to see fastballs. Whats the easiest pitch to hit, a fastball. The pitchers dont have anybody to worry about so they are going to be able to mix up their pitches against the sox. I bet if they had somebody who could steal 50 bases Cabrera and Thomes averages would go up very quickly. Is it any wonder the batting averages from the top of the order hitters dropped last year when they didnt have a leadoff hitter with speed? Again this year, the top of the order is struggling, I wonder why that is. Stolen bases are not "sexy" they impact the game in many ways and pitch selection is a huge one.


Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 25, 2006

May 2, 2008 7:09 pm
My point is that you need to drive them in as well.  For example, how did that game that was eventually suspended vs BAL work out when we had 14 guys left on base ?......lots of guys on base, not so many runs.
But we can agree that you cannot score runs without getting on-base, right?  We may have done a poor job driving those guys in in one game that you cite, but the fact of the matter is that you might only sometimes drive a guy in when he's on base...you can never drive a guy in when he isn't on-base.

Also, despite your citing one game, the White Sox are actually doing a fantastic job of driving guys in this year (these numbers are with RISP for the 2008 season):

Paul Konerko: .364 BA / 1.075 OPS
Jim Thome: .400 BA / 1.316 OPS
Carlos Quentin: .333 BA / 1.214 OPS
Joe Crede: .360 BA / 1.033 OPS
Juan Uribe: .333 BA / .833 OPS
Jermaine Dye: .318 BA / .833 OPS
A.J. Pierzynski: .296 BA / .869 OPS
Orlando Cabrera : .136 BA / .356 OPS
Nick Swisher: .133 BA / .525 OPS

So, with the exception of Cabrera and Swisher, our guys are doing a great job of driving guys in...which is why we're overachieving right now.  All of these are based on a tiny sample size, and should come down throughout the course of the year.........and you guys want to compound that problem by putting a low OBP guy in the leadoff slot.

Swish does walk a lot, but the only way he is getting to 2nd is by a hit, another walk, or a sacHow often does Jerry Owens get to 2nd when he does not get on base in the first place?

There is more than one way to skin a cat: you can get to 2nd base (and beyond) by hitting a double, a triple or a homer, or you can steal 2nd.  Lets compare Swisher and Owens in these categories.  I'll even let "September 2007" be a category for Owens, which is likely to be his career best month, and I'll use Swisher's 2008, even though he hasn't quite been performing up to his career standards in 2008...

Doubles

Swisher, 2008: 1 double / 47 at-bats
Swisher, career: 1 double / 18 at-bats

Owens, Sept. 2007: 1 double / 32 at-bats
Owens, career: 1 double / 37 at-bats

The clear advantage goes to Nick Swisher here.  On a career basis, he is more than twice as likely to arrive at second base via the double than Jerry Owens is.  Once every 18 at-bats for his career, compared to once every 32 at-bats for Owens, even during the best stretch of his career.

Triples

Swisher, 2008: no triples
Swisher, career: 1 triple / 428 at-bats

Owens, Sept. 2007: no triples
Owens, career: 1 triple / 183 at-bats

Owens is far more likely to reach 2nd or beyond via the triple, but don't be deceived, he only has two career triples; and would you rather have a 35-40 doubles / 1 triple guy (Swish) or a 15 doubles / 3 triples guy (Owens)?

Home Runs

Swisher, 2008: 1 HR / 47 at-bats
Swisher, career: 1 HR / 21 at-bats

Owens, Sept. 2007: no home runs
Owens, career: 1 HR / 183 at-bats

Duh.

Steals

Swisher, 2008: 1 steal / 93 at-bats; 1 caught stealing / 47 at-bats
Swisher, career: 1 steal / 342 at-bats; 1 caught stealing / 244 at-bats

Owens, Sept. 2007: 1 steal / 10 at-bats,  1 caught / 24 at-bats
Owens, career: 1 steal / 11 at-bats; 1 caught / 47 at-bats

Clearly, Swisher is almost no threat to run, and probably hurts the team when he does run.  Owens has 33 steals and 8 caught, so he helps the team a little when he runs.

Overall, though, projected over 600 at-bats?

Swisher reaches 2nd base & beyond "on his own" (i.e. the hitter behind him does not need to help him) about 66 times.  He is erased twice via the caught stealing.

Owens reaches 2nd base & beyond "on his own" about 66 times - using Sept. 2007 numbers except giving him his career numbers for HRs and triples, since he had none in Sept. 2007.

So, the fact of the matter is this: if Owens can hit .340 (which is what he hit in September 2007) and get on-base a ton, his stealing gets him to 2nd a lot.  However, we'd still tilt the scales to Swisher a little, because he hits WAY more HRs than Owens - and obviously, driving yourself in is the best way to make sure you can score.

The reality check here???  Is Owens going to hit .340 for his career?

When he gets on-base at his career rate, I'm pretty sure Swisher ends up at 2nd far more often than Owens, speed or no speed.

Think about what that does to pitchers concentration against all of the batters behind him in the lineup ?Morbs, I'd direct your attention to Baseball Between The Numbers by Jonah Keri.  He does an exhaustive statistical analysis of this...and finds that the batters behind a basestealer fare no better or no worse than they otherwise would - in other words, this is a total myth.

Hey, I just want the White Sox to win.  In my opinion, the numbers speak for themselves - Jerry Owens hurts us...

Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Jun 24, 2007

May 2, 2008 9:34 pm

Sox lose 2-0.....Swish is 0-4.....4 runs in the last three games, and 4-7 in the last 11 against a lot of mediocre or worse comp......you're right, Swish should continue to lead off and nothing should change.....Marcum is good.....he is not that good.....Again, not bashing Swish, I just think he is out of his element, and would do far better down in the lineup, where he has bat his entire career up until now. 

Also, with one position player gone w visa problems, another out with a bad hand, and a third recovering  from a bad groin, why the hell do we bring up another pitcher ?  That really helped us a lot tonight.  These at bats are getting to be unwatchable.....Buehrle pitched his ass off tonight, and nothing to show for it.  This IS reminding me of 2007, when early in the year we had the best starters' ERA in the AL and were still losing. 


Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 30, 2006

May 3, 2008 12:05 pm
But we can agree that you cannot score runs without getting on-base, right? 

No I cant agree, 31% of the runs they scored have come via the Home Run. You dont need anybody on base to hit a home run thus driving in 1 run. How many solo home runs does Carlos Quentin have right now?

There may be a statisical analysis about the leadoff hitter but can you disprove the fact that last year when the Sox did not have a leadoff hitter with stolen base potential the numbers dropped drastically for the 2, 3 ,4 hitters? Thats all the proof I need add that to this years stats of the 2, 3, 4 hitters. Cabrera did well hitting 2 behind Figgins. You have to take into account that there are stolen base threats on bad team with bad hitters around them. That skews the stats look no further than Tampa the last few years with Carl Crawford. he had nobody else hitting around him, it isnt his fault he didnt have talent hitting near him. Look at the Tigers with out Granderson early in the year. who struggled the 2, 3, 4 hitters. Thats the proof I can easily see.


Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 25, 2006

May 3, 2008 12:05 pm
Well, we can agree on one thing - this losing garbage is getting real old, real fast.

Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 30, 2006

May 3, 2008 12:36 pm
Yep and I think there is going to be much more to come. Whats going to happen when the rotation slows down a little bit? It might get scary. I am sure DJ is getting a kick out of me and you conflicting on this one repeat, he was the one saying we shared the same brain along with much more unpleasant things when we were on the same side initially of the Swisher deal not helping much.

Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 8, 2008

May 3, 2008 5:44 pm
So by this point in time, how is anyone opposed to making changes to this current lineup?  We are no longer in 1st and Detroit and Cleveland are rebounding.  Um, how are we going to the playoffs with what we have now?

Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Jun 24, 2007

May 3, 2008 11:55 pm

Perhaps the worst part, unlike last year, is that we are losing with our vets getting almost all of the PT, and the young players hardly getting any.  Jerry Owens is either going to be a) a future leadoff hitter for this team, or b) gone.  We need to find out, and since we are losing and not scoring runs, now is a good time for a change.  Nobody in the clubhouse can object to a lineup change right now, and I think some sort of shock treatment will help. 

Swish needs a day off, not only is he .208 with a .318 OBP (is he still the 2nd best hitter on the team by the way ?), but he is striking out in huge situations with runners on base...and looking to boot !  He did it today, and earlier in the week vs Nathan.  Pitchers now know what he is like as a leadoff, and almost always throw a first strike down the middle since they know he will take it.  He is in a mental funk, and a change in the batting order will help him.  Konerko was getting crucified by this board a week ago for having a low avg...."we need to trade him or move him from 4th "etc......even though he was driving in runs.  Why does Swisher, who is less proven not only over his career but with White Sox fans, get a break ? 

Maybe the occasional day off for Swish, Dye, Konerko, Thome, will refresh them, and remind them that they need to produce to keep their sport, not just show up and bank on their past reps.  In the meantime we get Owens some much needed AB's at the big league level, and inject some speed into the lineup. 

 Losing is bad enough, but for Ozzie to lose and not to do anything with the lineup to try to skake it up is just brutal.  I Cannot go through another year of this !  Like the previous post said, wait until the starting pitching cools off and things will really get ugly.


Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 8, 2008

May 4, 2008 1:13 am
Man, no better timing for Ozzie to have received that extension...

Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 30, 2006

May 4, 2008 2:08 am
I'll say it again as I said when they made the trade Swisher sucks. He is one of the most overrated players in the league. He is a poor mans Aaron Rowand. He is a solid guy to have in a reserve role but way too many fans thought he was a superstar coming over here. He strikes out a ton and doesnt hit for average. There is a reason Oakland dumped him in favor of Mike Sweeney and now Frank Thomas. He shouldnt get a pass, and he is. Maybe because we have hawk telling us about how he is so great. He is a hard nose player, plays balls out, but thats all he brings to the table. How many players that play balls out are actually good? Most of them play that way because thats the only way they can survive in the league. He is just a decent player nothing more.

Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Sep 10, 2006

May 4, 2008 2:23 pm
Nick Swisher isn't ever going to be a huge average guy, but he always has OBP's upwards of .360, which is a more important stat than BA.

Swisher is not a lead off hitter or CF
-
Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 8, 2008

May 4, 2008 3:54 pm
Yes but that stat doesnt help us when he isnt knocking guys, fielding at an above average level for a center fielder, or even running the bases well.  Not to mention his OBP has continually dropped to I believe as of today .318.