Gah, the bubble is SO weak. In years past its trying to find the 34 best at-large teams. This year, its trying to find out the teams who suck the least. Will someone try to play their ways in rather than play their ways out? You think that a team had played their way out of the field with a loss(see: New Mexico) but with EVERY bubble team seeming to lose, the bar for at-large bids is lower and lower so those teams find their way back into the field. It's like a game of limbo - how low can we go? So if you think this bracketology sucks, too bad. Until the bubble clears up(IF it ever clears up) I am just going to take who I think is most deserving. If 22-10 Illinois State fits the bill, so be it.
DISCLAIMER: FIELD IS GENERATED ON PREDICTIONS OF FUTURE RESULTS INCLUDING CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS
Field of 65 (* = Conference Champ)
1s: Memphis*, UCLA*, Duke*, Tennessee*
2s: Kansas*, North Carolina, Texas, Georgetown*
3s: Xavier*, Louisville, Wisconsin*, Stanford
4s: Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Indiana
5s: Marquette, Purdue, Washington State, Michigan State
6s: Gonzaga*, Miami (FL), Clemson, BYU
7s: Drake, Butler, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
8s: Kansas State, Baylor, UNLV*, USC
9s: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi State, South Alabama*
10s: Saint Joseph's, St. Mary's (CA), Arizona, Kent State
11s: Maryland, Wright State*, VCU*, Massachusetts
12s: New Mexico, UAB, Illinois State, Davidson*
13s: Stephen F. Austin*, Ohio*, Oral Roberts*, Bradley*
14s: Robert Morris*, Winthrop*, Cornell*, Utah State*
15s: UMBC*, Belmont*, CSU-Northridge*, Rider*
16s: Alabama State*, Austin Peay*, Portland State*, Morgan State*, American*
Bracket
SOUTH REGION
March 21 @ Alltel Arena - Little Rock, AR
1. Memphis vs. 16. Portland State - 9:55pm
8. USC vs. 9. Mississippi State - 7:25pm
March 20 @ Pepsi Center - Denver, CO
5. Marquette vs. 12. New Mexico - 3:10pm
4. Indiana vs. 13. Bradley - 12:40pm
March 20 @ Qwest Center - Omaha, NE
6. Miami (FL) vs. 11. Wright State - 12:25pm
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Robert Morris - 2:55pm
March 21 @ St. Pete Times Forum - Tampa, FL
7. Drake vs. 10. Saint Joseph's - 2:55pm
2. Georgetown vs. 15. Rider - 12:25pm
MIDWEST REGION
March 21 @ BJCC Arena - Birmingham, AL
1. Tennessee vs. 16. American - 3:00pm
8. UNLV vs. 9. Oklahoma - 12:30pm
March 21 @ Alltel Arena - Little Rock, AR
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Davidson - 12:40pm
4. Notre Dame vs. 13. Stephen F. Austin - 3:10pm
March 20 @ The Pond - Anaheim, CA
6. Gonzaga vs. 11. Maryland - 7:40pm
3. Stanford vs. 14. Utah State - 10:10pm
March 20 @ Qwest Center - Omaha, NE
7. West Virginia vs. 10. Kent State - 9:40pm
2. Kansas vs. 15. Maryland Baltimore County - 7:10pm
EAST REGION
March 21 @ RBC Arena - Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Alabama State/Austin Peay - 7:10pm
8. Baylor vs. 9. South Alabama - 9:40pm
March 21 @ BJCC Arena - Birmingham, AL
5. Washington State vs. 12. Illinois State - 9:50pm
4. Vanderbilt vs. 13. Ohio - 7:20pm
March 21 @ St. Pete Times Forum - Tampa, FL
6. Clemson vs. 11. Virginia Commonwealth - 9:40pm
3. Louisville vs. 14. Cornell - 7:10pm
March 20 @ Pepsi Center - Denver, CO
7. Butler vs. 10. Arizona - 7:20pm
2. Texas vs. 15. CSU-Northridge - 9:50pm
WEST REGION
March 20 @ The Pond - Anaheim, CA
1. UCLA vs. 16. Morgan State - 5:10pm
8. Kansas State vs. 9. Arkansas - 2:40pm
March 20 @ Verizon Center - Washington, D.C.
5. Purdue vs. 12. UAB - 9:40pm
4. Connecticut vs. 13. Oral Roberts - 7:10pm
March 20 @ Verizon Center - Washington, D.C.
6. BYU vs. 11. Massachusetts - 2:50pm
3. Xavier vs. 14. Winthrop - 12:20pm
March 21 @ RBC Arena - Raleigh, NC
7. Pittsburgh vs. 10. St. Mary's (CA) - 12:15pm
2. North Carolina vs. 15. Belmont - 2:45pm
LAST 4 IN
New Mexico (25-8) - Beats UNLV and loses to them in MWC conference semfinals on their home floor
Illinois State (22-10) - Makes MVC final and loses to Bradley
Arizona (18-14) - Barely gets in on the back of SOS despite losing to everyone but Oregon State down the stretch
Maryland (20-13) - 9-7 ACC record gets it done despite ACC quarterfinal loss
LAST 4 OUT
Western Kentucky (24-7) - LAST team out. As much as I want to include them...
Houston (24-8) - Loses to UAB in Conference USA semifinal in a virtual elimination game
Texas A&M (21-11) - 7-9 in conference and out in the Big 12 quarters
Florida (22-10) - Not enough good wins down the stretch
NEXT 4 OUT
Syracuse (17-14) - Too many losses, 8-10 Big East record
Villanova (18-13) - Same as Syracuse
Arizona State (18-13) - 8-10 Pac-10 record and too many losses
Ohio State (18-14) - No good wins
How in the HELL does zona get in at 18-14. That will never happen, not saying they won't get in but if they finish 18-14 they won't sniff the tournment!
I appreciate the analysis. Looking at your SEC teams, I have question - how do you project Arkansas as a 9 seed and UF as out of the tourney. UF has a better overall record by 2.5 games, a better conference record (in the tougher division BY FAR), and while UF's nonconference is a joke, Ark didn't exactly have a ton of great OOC wins.
On top of it, Ark has lost 4 of 5. Games remaining are Vandy, at MSU and Auburn. I'm not even saying Florida should be ahead of Ark, but to make one a 9 seed and the other completely out of the tournament, that seems a bit much. Looks like your final prediction for Florida is 1-2 finish and a 1st round SECT exit. Are you predicting a 2-1 or 3-0 finish for Ark and a strong SECT run? I guess I could see it in that scenario.
Also, for Florida to tank like that, they have to lose to Kentucky, who even with a loss to UT Sunday, would finish the conference 12-4 (assuming a W over USC and your predicted W over UF). That's a 12-4, 18-11 finish with a top 10-15 SOS and a likely bye/victory in the SECT, and a finish 3 games ahead of UF in conference. RPI would be in the 40's at that point. How do they not get consideration over your tanking Florida scenario? I know UK had 2 terrible OOC losses, but UF lost to the only decent OOC teams they played, FSU and Ohio State both out of your bracket. Everyone else was garbage. Meanwhile UK played and lost to 2 top 10 teams, another team in the tourney (UAB), one barely out (Houston). Then you have Sand Diego, who is top 100 RPI, not as bad a loss as LSU, and then the GW game. Seems like all that UK would have in it's favor outweigh it's early losses, at least vis-avis a comparison to a tanking Florida.
Also, it seems like predicting the teams in and out as aof right now is hard enough - when you speculate on who is going to beat who over the next few weeks, the bracket becomes worthless, because too much has to come down. Would think calling the bracket as if they had to pick it righ now would make more sense.
I'm no AZ fan, or Pac10 fan, but I see how AZ makes it at 17-14 (one of ther Wins is not counted for RPI purposes, or their SOS would be lower). Even if they tank, they have played the toughest schedule in the country, which the committee usually rewards. Plus they will have wins against TexAM, at Illinois, at UNLV, at Houston, at USC, and swept Wash St. Plus losses to Memphis, Kansas, OOC. It's justa lot of impressive wins, especially on the road. Remember when UGA got in in 200 with a 16-14 record? They played a #1 SOS schedule that year. People need to remember though, that the #1SOS for AZ exlcudes their weaksest opponent, so when looking at their record, you have to take off a W.
Carolina will get the east over Duke. Even if Ty Lawson's not back, NC wins in the Durham High School Gym . The team has grown a whole lot since the last meeting, whereas Duke's losing their legs, their shots, and the respect of the refs. The flops are starting to pile up and aren't being called nearly as often.
You're probably right about Illinois State being better than a lot of other bubble teams but seems to me they're likely to be beaten this weekend by a hot SIU team playing at home. Southern Illinois took their sweet time about it but they seem finally to have approached the level of play they've shown the past few years--and even this year most of their troubles have been on the road. Given the "strength" of the bubble teams in general, I see no reason that both ISU and SIU can't get in, assuming neither loses early in the MVC tournament.
Florida doesn't get in because OSU doesn't get in. OSU beat Florida like a red-headed step child. Florida is 18-2 at home, 3-5 on the road. They padded their record this year with lots of home wins against very bad teams. That isn't tournament worthy. Calm down Florida fans, no one is that great every season. Maybe next year.
"Florida doesn't get in because OSU doesn't get in. OSU beat Florida like a red-headed step child. Florida is 18-2 at home, 3-5 on the road. They padded their record this year with lots of home wins against very bad teams. That isn't tournament worthy. Calm down Florida fans, no one is that great every season. Maybe next year. "
One win/loss early in the season is pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Who cares if they lost to OSU, plenty of the at large teams in the tournament will have lost multiple games to non-tournament teams. I know as a buckeye, you probably have Florida on the brain, since they've crushed your hopes and dreams in about every single important game the last few years, but the OSU-UF game earlier this year, really didn't have the significance of the last 3 matchups (bball and football).
And I wasn't even arguing that Florida should be in. Just that there seemed like too wide a gap between them and Arkansas. But also that UK should have been ahead of them.
I don't think a 13 loss MVC team makes it in the tourney. Not with losses to 6 teams around or over 100 RPI. SI needs to win the MVC tourney. Ill St. only has 2 +100 losses, then one egregios 220+ loss to eastern Michigan. They are much better off, despite the worse loss. But losing at So. Ill and a poor conf tourney could knock them out.
I'm not so convinced of this. I think Carolina will have to beat Duke twice (once in the ACC tourney) to get the East. I suspect they'll split, and that could mean neither of them get a 1 seed. Carolina has looked like a 1 seed, but if you look at their record, they haven't played any top teams other than Duke. They are 0-1 against the top 25 RPI teams. If they split with Duke, that will leave them at 1-2 against the RPI top 25, and that just doesn't sound like a 1 seed. Duke hasn't looked like a 1 seed lately. So when it comes down to the end, i think if Memphis, Tennessee, Kansas/Texas and one other team finishes strong (Louisville? UCLA?), then UNC and Duke may find themselves as 2s.
p.s. You have to worry about how long it's taking Ty Lawson to come back from this injury. He should have been back from an ankle sprain by now. If it was serious enough to hold him out for this long, you have to wonder how close he'll be 100% when he comes back. For a guy whose best strength is his quickness, that's not good.
WOW, I am amazed. I can't believe you have this much time on your hands to come up with this. I applaud you and I am not being a jerk either. You really put a lot of time and effort into this. But, if you are gonna leave out UK, could you at least make Duke like a 7 seed or something? Anyway, good job.
How do you have A&M not making the tourney. They are above .500 in the big 12, beat ou, texas, texas tech(by 44), ohio state by like 30, and won the preseason nit in new york. Come on, dude.
WARNING: To all people who have Butler seeded higher than #8: Their hold on the Horizon League, sure as it's been throughout the year, is slipping. They stand a good chance of being upset by either Wright State or possibly Cleveland State, both of whom have triumphed over the Bulldogs once this season, in the HL finals. Wright State also is currently trailing Valparaiso 61-57 with 5 minutes left in that game. With a loss and a CSU win over 9th place Youngstown State tonight, the Vikings, who would be (20-11, 12-6) would then earn the #2 seed in the Horizon League tournament, earning them an automatic spot in the semifinals. BRACKETMAKERS PROCEED WITH CAUTION>
