I'm going to go out on a limb and say there won't be one. There wasn't in the 500, and at Talladega it didn't happen until very late. Usually those 2 races are the craziest of the year in terms of the big one, and the 400 and the fall Dega race are usually more calm.
This probably means there will be a 17 car pileup now. Nothing I've picked this year has been right.
I'm with buckeye on this. I just don't see a big one happening. The drivers are just able to save the cars so much better with the COT and that eliminates a lot of potential "big ones". But it wouldn't surprise me to see a 20 or 10 to go big one if it does happen.
I went with 11 or more. They got a couple restrictor plate races in with this new car, I don't think we're gonna see that feeling out first part of the race like we have with the two other plate races. They also think this car is indestructible so they're gonna get crazy early I think.