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Pre-season discussion


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Pre-season discussion
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Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 10, 2008

June 21, 2008 6:29 pm

I did a little checking about pre-season prediction from 2002 to 2007and what the final standing was at the end of the season.  Of the top 10 teams in the AP polls almost 5 teams on average dropped out of the top 10 and on average 2 of those 5 completely drop out of the top 25 AP poll rankings.  The minimum number that dropped out of the top 10 in any one of the given years was 4.  Based off Athlon sports magazine, Lindsay magazine, and ESPN.com here are the top 10 teams of the season so far.  Actually I've listed 11 because they all agreed on the top 8, in no particular order below, but did have a 100% consensus for 9 & 10

Ohio, Oklahoma, Georgia, USC, Florida, Missouri, Clemson, West Virginia (Top 8) Auburn, Texas, & LSU (For position 9 & 10)

Here is the challenge.  What teams do you think will drop out of the top 10, pick a minimum of 4.  Do you think any of them will end up unranked?  Just an FYI there was only 1 season in the last 6 that all the teams that dropped out of the top 10 stayed in the top 25.  All other season had a least 1 go unranked and 1 season had 4 go unranked.

On the flip side by the end of the season there have always been at least 2 unranked teams end up in the top 10.  Some seasons had 3 for an average of 2.5 per season.  Here are the remaining 14 teams to round out the top 25 in no particular order. 

Texas Tech, Wisconson, BYU, Arizona St, Kansas, Tennesse, Illinois, Wake Forest, Fresno St, Oregon, Virgina Tech(2 votes), Pittsburg(2 votes), South Florida(2 votes), Penn State(2 votes)

Who do you think will rise from the obscurity of the sub 25 rankings and make it into the top 10, minimum 2 teams?

 


Pre-season discussion
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Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 31, 2007

June 26, 2008 2:36 pm
The problem with this is that almost every top 10 team can stay there based on their schedules alone.  My picks would be Georgia and VT simply because they play a schedule that could pose problems.  The other top 10 teams play such soft opponents they can ride it out.

Pre-season discussion
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Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 10, 2008

June 28, 2008 4:29 am
I bet if you went back and looked at the schedules for the years 2002 to 2007 you could probably say the same thing that most of the the top 10 can ride it out, but the fact is they didn't.  Every year for the past 6 years a minimum of 4 teams dropped out of the top 10 by the end of the year.  7 of the 9 games played between the top 11 teams are played by Texas, Auburn, & LSU and one of those games is between LSU & Auburn.  Those 3 teams will not escape unscathed.  Georgia has such a tough schedule that I could see them losing 2 or 3 games and if things go badly for them even more.  Clemson has the softest schedule of the bunch.  They only have 1 game scheduled against a projected top 25 team.  I would expect if Clemson loses a single game the will drop quite a bit.  If they lose 2 games they will be hard pressed to make it back into the top 10.  I would say that this year is the year that USC drops out of the top 10 except for almost every one of their tough games are at home.  Ohio State on the other hand has to play USC, Illinois, and Wisconsin at away games.  I will say this could be the year Ohio State drops out of the top 10 at the very least out of the national title race.