I am looking for help deciding which QB to keep this coming season. David Garrard or Philip Rivers? We keep 7 out of 15 players each season...here are my other 6 keepers.
Garrard started the year slow then got hurt. Once he was back on the field, he threw 10 or 12 TD's in his last 5-6 games. With better WR's and now going into his 2nd season as the starter, he'll make a very solid #1 QB for any team.
No, he's not going to be a Brady, P. Manning or Romo, but he'll still get you a solid 18-22 pts a game.
As for Rivers, he's a good young QB, but I think you'll get slightly better production from Garrard. Especially if LT is healthy.
David Garrard is definitely the more consistent of the two from game to game, but he'll rarely put up numbers over 15-18 points. If you're relying on one of these QBs to be your weekly starter, take Garrard.
But I'm in the minority on this post and say to keep Philip Rivers and draft another QB to play the match up game when Rivers has the potential for a 40-point game. The Chargers should go back to using LT a ton, so Rivers will throw more passes into the backfield for LT to get TDs. But that could also mean more rushing TDs, so you'll have to play the matchup. Plus Chris Chambers should be much better with the offensive scheme and will be good for 10 TDs this year.
I would say both QBs face mediocre pass defenses all season, but the Chargers opt for higher scoring games while the Jaguars would rather keep the score lower (though it's worth noting the two teams were only separated by one total point for the 2007 season due to some terrible games by SD).
If most of the top-tier QBs are keepers, look to someone like Texans' QB Matt Schaub to have a solid year if he and Andre Johnson are healthy together. In 11 games last season, Schaub threw for 2241 yards and 9 TDs.
I find it interesting that you, Sportsfan138, said that Garrard will rarely put up numbers over 15-18 when in every one of the 6 leagues I looked at, he averaged just over 20 pts per game. He also averaged 23.93 pts per game during the last 5 games of the season.
Rivers on the other hand, averaged 17.10 pts per game and only ended up with that high of an average because of a couple of big games.
Garrard's going into his second year as the starter with better WR's to go with an already excellent ground game. Considering the fact that he will also take off and run with it, he is the obvious choice here.
Now, he's not going to put up Brady or Manning like numbers, but he'll probably finish in the top 10 at QB this year.
Your mention of Schaub is a good choice though. If healthy, and as you said, if Andre Johnson stays healthy all year, Schaub will make a good start in most 12 team leagues. ;)
If those are the two QBs that you have I would keep another Player. If you drop them you can keep pick them up at draft day or you might pick up a better QB that someone else might drop because of pour performance last yr (eg. M. Bulger or J. Cutler). What is your DEF, is it top 3, I would go into that direction or maybe go with a sleeper that might lead you to high rewards.
No nobody really worth keeping beyond the other 6 I listed and one of these two. My defense was the Steelers and they sure let me down last season. I don't like to keep defenses because it is so sketchy from season to season. Not a priority to keep. I had a WR and RB worthy of keeping however I traded them for draft picks as I really wanted to keep the 6 listed plus a QB.
Wolf, thanks for the update on the scoring. I'm in a point-heavy league with lots of bonuses for rushing QBs, yardage, # of passes, etc so it's hard to delineate point differential when comparing to standard scoring.
I do think Garrard will be as good as last year as well, so he is clearly the safer pick.
Also keep in mind that Rivers had a new coaching/offensive scheme to get used to that was the scape goat for much of the season. Plus he lost Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker for the season, though neither was stud WR, forcing the Chargers to use two WR that had little to no experience with the offense (Vincent Jackson, 2nd year, and Chris Chambers, traded).
Still, go with Garrard if he was putting up those numbers last year as Wolf said.
OK, I know I may get really hammered on this, but I think I like Rivers more (in a tight race). I know if you (only) look at last year's rollercoaster for Rivers, you almost have to lean towards Garrard, and I can't dispute that based on only last years performance. However, I can't help but think people were saying very positive things (similar to ones in this post) about Rivers predicting Rivers as a solid #2 and potentially a #1 going into last year. These projections were also based upon one year of starting. Rivers didn't progress as much as predicted, but I don't think he's done, yet (I'd like to see a little more). I'm not a Chargers fan and I'm not trying to appologize for him, but he had a new coach, new OC, a young WR corps, injuries, and the (whole) Chargers team didn't seem to play real well with the bullseye on their back. As far as Garrard, I can see a situation and I know this is a big if the Jags try to "open up the playbook" for Gerrard (like Rivers last year and Roethlisberger 2 years ago) now that they have a few more weapons, you may lose your model of consistency.
Again, I'm not sure I have my mind completely made up. Just my two cents (for now).
Garrard is the guy you want. Rivers is alright but his upside this year is not much. Garrard on the other hand was shown trust at the end of the season to throw into the endzone. After you keep Garrard you need to invest in a QB because both Rivers and Garrard are risky as a starter.
