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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 19, 2007
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Thinking about the #2 overall (and #5 non-conf) SOS for Arizona, I thought it would be interesting to look at how Bill Self scheduled National Champs Kansas this season: Overall SOS - 50. Non-conference SOS - 156. Kansas won every non-conference game it played, and its only 3 losses were to Big 12 schools during the season, and all away. [For what it's worth, UCLA tells a similar story: overall SOS -14 and non-conf SOS - 107, with the one non-conf loss to Texas]
Of course, no one could have anticipated the key injuries and coaching leave for Arizona this season, but I hope Lute rethinks his strategy of setting the absolute toughest schedule possible. While losing to Kansas and Memphis in the pre-season is nothing to be ashamed of, I can't help but wonder if it really helped in the long run (i.e. aside from actually making the tourney). And instead of taking on UNLV or Texas A&M as we were, they were playing DePaul, Miami of Ohio, Austin Peay, and Cincinnati. Not terrible schools, but not tourney-bound either.
My point here is that, while it may be a source of pride to say Arizona played 3 of the Final Four teams, we didn't beat any of them. I would much rather have those 2 non-conference games over in the win column (20-12 overall record) by virtue of playing weaker teams than have to hold up RPI and two losses to title contenters in order to defend why an 18-14 team should be in the NCAA tournament. And given the fact that the ultimate champion from this year's best conference played basically a middle-of-the-pack non-conference schedule, one has to wonder what an elite-level school in the 2nd best conference has to prove by playing the 5th hardest schedule?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 16, 2006
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Playing the best competition is the best way to improve. It teaches the players what they need to do to win at the highest level possible. It also provides plenty of highly visible opportunities for players to show their skills, which helps greatly in recruiting. Plus, when the team stinks it up in conference play it helps get them better seeding in the tournament. Arizona's problem wasn't their non-conference scheduling this year, as they went 10-3 in those games. If anything that schedule saved Arizona's tournament streak. 20-12 as opposed to 18-14 doesn't look that great with a much weaker SOS.
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Nov 23, 2006
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I think SOS is the only thing that got us in the tournament. At 19-14 (9-11 Pac-10), we had no business being in the tournament, other than the strong schedule. Even losing to every good team we played helped our case. I see where you're coming from, but a lot teams with strong records were jokes to the committee because of their SOS, and subsequently, RPI.
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 19, 2006
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Lute's always played a top ten schedule, year in, year out and rightly so. You don't get better playing the 125+ ranked schools ..... You just get to run up the score and play your 9-12 guys ....besides, that's the only reason we got in the dance this year. Plus it's a huge advantage in recruiting... telling kids that you'll play at No Carolina, Memphis and Kansas, Illinois etc.
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 19, 2007
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You're all making good points, and admittedly I'm being a bit provocative, but the perspective seems to be coming specifically from making the NCAA tournament. At Arizona, making the tourney should never be the question. The real question is how far in the tournament the team can go -- when we get to see another National Championship, dammit! -- and there I don't see anyone refuting my original premise.
Playing the best competition is the best way to improve.
Seems intuitive, yet apparently playing teams 100-200 doesn't detract significantly from development if you take the UCLA and Kansas examples. I would argue that, early in the season, learning how to win (how to twist the knife once it's in) is more important than player development. Opportunities to play the best competition and improve will come later in the regular season.
It also provides plenty of highly visible opportunities for players to show their skills, which helps greatly in recruiting.
Plus it's a huge advantage in recruiting... telling kids that you'll play at No Carolina, Memphis and Kansas, Illinois etc.
No argument that a pre-season marquee match-up draws an audience, but you won't win the argument that it compares in viewership and recruiting to making the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four, or NC.
And exactly how much advantage did Arizona gain in its recruiting power by getting whitewashed by Carolina two years in a row? "Come to Arizona, and the nation can watch you lose to Roy's boys!" 
Don't get me wrong...I love to see big name basketball programs collide. It makes for good TV, gets fans excited, and lets people who don't live in the area see Arizona play. I just think Lute needs to keep the end goal of winning or running deep in the NCAA tournament in mind as he schedules the next season.
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 16, 2006
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I don't think anyone is arguing that Arizona should schedule tough year-in and year-out because they need it to get in the tournament. I think people are pointing out that this year it's what saved their hide because of such an awful conference performance. Had Arizona actually had the talent on their roster to win a title or go to a Final Four like Kansas, Memphis and UCLA did, then maybe they would have won those games that you're highlighting. However, they didn't, but those two losses still did more for Arizona than wins against mediocre teams would have.
I can't speak for everyone else, but my point about the scheduling was that it helps improve seeding in the tournament, which is certainly a factor in positioning yourself for the easiest route to the championship. You play the tough games in November and December so that you get the easier games in March. Eventually, if you want to win a title, you have to beat the great teams anyway. Scheduling games like that in non-conference play allows your players to get a look at what they might have to go against later when it really counts. And usually everyone is better at everything the second, third or fourth time they've done it.
And exactly how much advantage did Arizona gain in its recruiting power by getting whitewashed by Carolina two years in a row? What if Arizona wins the game? Being on national television in appealing matchups draws audiences. It's up to the team and players to play tough and with any hope win. But putting players in that position year after year is a big reason why Olson has been able to attract so many recruits to a school that previously had no successful history.
I just think Lute needs to keep the end goal of winning or running deep in the NCAA tournament in mind as he schedules the next season.I think he does every year. You might disagree about how to get there, but Olson has been doing this for years and, for the most part, it's worked amazingly well.
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 13, 2008
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There are a couple things at work when setting up the schedule, getting into the tournament and having your team ready for the tournament.
If you play in a tough conference that is recognized as such by the selection committee, you can go a little easier on the non-conference schedule, build up the Ws and still get in.
But to win the thing you have to be ready for the tournament and that means having been tested against the top teams in hostile environments. Early on, when UofA was building up the program, we won a lot of games while taking on early season tournaments and second tier teams from other conferences. But when the tournament rolled around, we flamed out early because we weren't ready for the intensity.
Lute changed that by scheduling tougher and the teams got better in the tournament. Remember that 97 team struggled early and took it's lumps but was not overwhelmed when it counted.
It's a tough process to go through, but it does get the most out of what you've got. "That which does not kill us only makes us stronger."
If you believe you've got an elite program with a chance to win the title, you don't schedule cupcakes. Elite programs play against the best, which also puts you on national TV and gets you attention from the best high school players, which keeps you an elite team.
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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A Scheduling Lesson Learned, Perhaps?
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Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 19, 2007
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Sorry for the length of the post, but here's my point. Let's look at the past 4 national champions (http://kenpom.com/rpi.php):
2008 - Kansas
Date Result Site Record Conf
Fri Nov 9 Kansas 107, (252) Louisiana Monroe 78 Home 1-0
Sun Nov 11 Kansas 85, (288) Missouri Kansas City 62 Home 2-0
Thu Nov 15 Kansas 92, (NR) Washburn 60 Home
Wed Nov 21 Kansas 87, (139) Northern Arizona 46 Home 3-0
Sun Nov 25 Kansas 76, (38) Arizona 72 (OT) Home 4-0
Wed Nov 28 Kansas 87, (233) Florida Atlantic 49 Home 5-0
Sun Dec 2 Kansas 59, (28) Southern California 55 Away 6-0
Wed Dec 5 Kansas 85, (285) Eastern Washington 47 Home 7-0
Sat Dec 8 Kansas 84, (158) DePaul 66 Home 8-0
Sat Dec 15 Kansas 88, (82) Ohio 51 Semi-Home (Kansas City, MO) 9-0
Tue Dec 18 Kansas 71, (67) Georgia Tech 66 Away 10-0
Sat Dec 22 Kansas 78, (73) Miami OH 54 Home 11-0
Sat Dec 29 Kansas 86, (183) Yale 53 Home 12-0
Sat Jan 5 Kansas 85, (133) Boston College 60 Away 13-0
Tue Jan 8 Kansas 90, (141) Loyola MD 60 Home 14-0
2007 - Florida
Fri Nov 10 Florida 79, (175) Samford 54 Home 1-0
Tue Nov 14 Florida 86, (333) North Florida 40 Home 2-0
Thu Nov 16 Florida 90, (201) Jacksonville 61 Home 3-0
Sat Nov 18 Florida 93, (219) Chattanooga 44 Home 4-0
Tue Nov 21 Florida 94, (325) Prairie View A&M 33 Home 5-0
Fri Nov 24 Florida 101, (97) Western Kentucky 68 Neutral (Las Vegas, NV) 6-0
Sat Nov 25 (11) Kansas 82, Florida 80 (OT) Neutral (Las Vegas, NV) 6-1
Tue Nov 28 Florida 83, (288) Southern 27 Home 7-1
Sun Dec 3 (41) Florida St. 70, Florida 66 Away 7-2
Wed Dec 6 Florida 85, (76) Providence 67 Home 8-2
Sun Dec 17 Florida 72, (171) Florida A&M 57 Neutral (Tampa, FL) 9-2
Wed Dec 20 Florida 88, (285) Stetson 67 Home 10-2
Sat Dec 23 Florida 86, (1) Ohio St. 60 (HD) Home 11-2 &nb | |
