|
tmontana.
You bring up a lot of good points and I will do my best to address them all. Yes, starting pitching is the single most determining factor in the line when betting baseball. The example you gave me greatly would depend on the starting pitcher for the Astros. But if it was an average pitcher in mlb, my ratings would say that Johan would be worth roughly -250 and Hernandez would be worth -150 roughly. Now, that is what I think they are worth and for a variety of reasons the line is not always on par with my ratings, and that is where I get line value from. (It's good when the line is different from my ratings. That is how I determine if a team is worth a bet that night).
As far as my "full cards", I won't have anymore of those this season. My system which is based strictly on statical anaylsis gives me A LOT more plays early in the season. I will spare you the details because it is actually very boring. Most people start betting my picks after that part of the season is over. The people who did that this year (since april 27th) are up 7.27 units. That means that if you played $100 per unit you would be up $727 so far. Not too shabby for a less than 2 week stretch. And what you described with your own personal betting is nothing more than an abberation. In the long run playing more or less games will make no difference. Most people will lose about 45% of their bets in the long run.
I on the other hand, have been making over 100 units for the last 4 years. I do this by hitting 57%-60% winners. I have had plenty of people tell me that thats not even enough to make money because of the vig. Well...I didn't have to major in economics in college to figure out that the break even point in games with -110 odds (which you get in football and basketball) is 52.4%. Ex: 21 $1 bets. 11 winners and 10 losers. You win $11 on the winning bets and lose $10 plus 10 cents for every losing bet. (That comes to $11.) $11 - $11= $0. 11 divided by 21 = 52.4% My bets in baseball will average out to be somewhere around -110 odds.
I can't give you my best bet each night because I don't have one. All of my plays fit my statistical system and their is no fundamental analysis involved (which is why I make money). Anyone who tells you that they have the "lock of the year" or "play of the decade" is a Scamdicapper and is lying to you. I don't respect anyone who uses the "L" word so don't be fooled and there are a lot of dishonest people in this business. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A GUARANTEED WINNER.
I hope this helped and I hope you read the entire post. There is a lot of good stuff here. I also hope you get on my plays soon if you haven't already. And if you decide not to, then I wish you good luck in your future handicapping.
|
