Damian's picks

Hey guys,

I am a professional handicapper and I have had many requests recently from potential clients to prove myself before they sign up for my service.  I thought that this was a fair thing to do as I have always wanted my investor to show me a good return before signing on full time.  I thought posting here was the best way to go about that.  Sports betting is no different than any other investment whether it be the stock market or real estate or one of my passions, thoroughbred ownership. 

By following my advice and using a strict money management strategy you will make money in the long run.  I am up about 10 units for the season but have only posted here for the last two days and I am down.  I will track my record (using $100 per unit system) starting with the last two days.  There are no "locks"  in my system and I believe in probability, statistics, line value and slowly building your bankroll.

I invite anyone to track my plays or post comments or questions in this thread.   

Borowski and Saito each blew saves for me last night which turned a profitable day into a losing day.  I'm sure I will get some lucky wins in the future so I don't worry about tough losses.  I am 2-8 -781 or -7.8 units since I started to post here.

That might seem like a lot but i'm a good handicapper and baseball can change quickly and random variance will always work itself out in the long run.  By slowly grinding my way out of this hole and turning a profit I will show that my methods are valid.   Here are my picks today:

4/15

MIL +113  (100 to win 113)

OAK -105  (105 to win 100)

TOR -132  (132 to win 100)

DET -136  (136 to win 100)

BOS -107  (107 to win 100)

NYY -120  (120 to win 100)

Hey guys,

I went 4-2 yesterday for a profit of +195.  I am now 6-10 overall for a net loss of -586 (or 5.86 units.  That was a typical day for me and I expect to have many more days like that going forward.  Today I have a huge card as I have 9 plays.  I will get some days like this because I can't control how many picks I have.  Whatever my system picks I have to play.  So here we go:

4/16

ARI -175  (175 to win 100)

HOU +105 (100 to win 105)

WAS +170  (100 to win 170)

CUB -200  (200 to win 100)

SDG -136  (136 to win 100)

NYY -155  (155 to win 100)

TAM -116  (116 to win 100)

LAA -155  (155 to win 100)

OAK -105  (105 to win 100)

I know this a lot of plays to get down on, but you might be able to hold off on the later games until we cash some of the earlier games.  There is also a day game with the D'backs that has a good chance of cashing.

That means that I have a bet on the Yankees.  The line on the yankees tonight is -155.  That means that you have to risk  $155 to win $100.  In other words, the yankees are favorites tonight.

I am using $100 per unit to keep my record.  Ex:  If you were a $50 bettor (50 per unit), you would risk 77.50 to win $50.  If you were a $25 bettor (25 per unit) , you would risk $38.75 to win $25 etc.  

The line is -155 so you multiply 1.55 times the amount you are using per unit to get your risk amount.  If the line was -175 you would multiply 1.75 times your unit amount to get your risk amount.  When the picks are underdogs always bet your unit amount no matter what the line is.   And always use the same unit amount for every bet.

Hi ears,

When i say "the card"  i'm just referring to my picks that i have selected for today.  You might have already known that, but i just wanted to clear that up for everyone else too.  I already posted my bets for today at 1:49 p.m.  There are 9 bets today and i'm off to a good start as arizona is beating the Giants.

I was 4-5 yesterday for a loss of -207 to bring me to 10-15 -793 since I started to post here.  I was very disappointed yesterday, but I view handicapping as a long term investment and I will eventually get it going.  Remember: I am up for the season about 10 units, but not since posting here.  I need just a few weeks and I will eventually have a winning record here too.

I am still handicapping the card today, but here are the early games:

MIL +103  (100 to win 103)

CIN +128  (100 to win 128)

I will post the rest of the plays as soon as I am done calculating the numbers.

Here is the rest of the card for 4/17

SDG -165  (165 to win 100)

CWS +101  (100 to win 101)

DET +110  (100 to win 110)

TEX +170  (100 to win 170)

MIN -118  (118 to win 100)

OAK -116  (116 to win 100)

I will have roughly 1000 plays this year and hit about 60% overall (i just don't know which ones) so don't be worried about this small sample of a losing stretch that I've had over the past 4 days.

ANOTHER BLOWN SAVE for me last night, this time Bobby Jenks couldn't protect a 2 run lead in the 9th.  I also had the Padres lose in 22 innings when they had multiple chances to win the game and got a lot of bad breaks that I won't get into.  That turned a highly profitable day into a losing one.  I was 3-5 for a loss of 198.  That brings me to 13-20 for a loss of 9.91 units. 

Thats still not terrible considering I've had 3 blown saves in 4 days.  If those games were converted I would have a winning record and you can see how a couple of freakish games will sway the record in the short run.   But I'm sure that I will have some lucky wins in the next few days to even things out.  Stay with me, I WILL TURN THIS AROUND SHORTLY.  Here are today's plays:

4/18

Mets -102  (102 to win 100)

Brewers -117  (117 to win 100)

Dodgers -135  (135 to win 100)

Astros - 119  (119 to win 100)

Yankees -140  (140 to win 100)

Angels -169  (169 to win 100)

I was just 3-3 yesterday for a small loss of -94.  Now I am 16-23 for a loss of 10.85 units.  I hope to get it going today with a big card.  Here are today's picks:

4/19

Brewers +135  (100 to win 135)

Giants +107  (100 to win 107)

Dodgers -118  (118 to win 100)

Rockies +105  (100 to win 105)

Diamondbacks -110 (110 to win 100)

Indians -127  (127 to win 100)

Rays -102  (102 to win 100)

Mariners +135  (100 to win 135)

I was 5-3 yesterday for a profit of +202.  I am now 21-26 for a loss of -883 (or 8.83 units).  I have a 7 plays today and a good mix of dogs and favorites.  Here are today's picks.

5/20

Giants +160  (100 to win 160)

Cubs -165  (165 to win 100)

Diamondbacks -138  (138 to win 100)

Phillies -105  (105 to win 100)

Tigers +115  (100 to win 115)

Yankees -180  (180 to win 100)

White Sox +109  (100 to win 109)

I had a good day on Sunday going 5-2 for a profit of +331.  That brings me to a total of 26-28 for a loss of -552 (or 5.52 units) since I started posting here.  I have 5 plays today and look for my third profitable day in a row. The first game starts at 12:30 so make sure you get down on it.  Here are today's picks:

4/21

Blue Jays -130  (130 to win 100)

Cubs -128  (128 to win 100)

Reds +127  (100 to win 127)

Cardinals +101  (100 to win 101)

Giants +170  (100 to win 170)