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ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK


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ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Sep 2, 2007

January 19, 2008 11:57 pm

READ THIS BEFORE YOU POST!!!!!!!!!

REMEMBER - A MAXIMUM OF 4 LOCKS PER WEEK!

AND A MAXIMUM OF ONE LOCK PER DAY!

 

LOCK THREAD CONCEPT -

This thread has been created for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this!!! If you have an area of expertise - Pac-10, AFC East, Big East, NHL, etc. - please make some LOCK choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "LOCK". The difference between a PICK and a LOCK is that a PICK is a game you like, a LOCK is a game that you KNOW. We are here to help each other win. If you are claiming your choice is a LOCK, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING -

I take it upon myself to donate my time and track everybody's LOCK every day, as long as you agree to do your part by doing a few simple things. I will not track your picks if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, I won't be putting your LOCK on the spreadsheet.

- Post only 1 LOCK per day.  You may post a MAXIMUM of 4 LOCKS per week.  A week starts on Monday, and ends on Sunday.  Choose NCAA, NBA, NFL, or NHL.  You do not have to stay in one sport.  Spread them around if you like.

- No "buying" points.

- First half lines are OK.  No second half or quarter lines.  We want the LOCKS posted early enough so we can all benefit.  Time constraints make second half lines too tough to track.

- No other "line-manipulations: like teasers, etc.

- No props.

- No moneylines.

- Hockey and soccer plays need to be -129 or better.  No HUGE favorites for LOCKS.  If you have a -200 line or something, take the -1.5 goals if you feel like it is still a LOCK.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the LOCK doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

And, THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an original explanation as to why you KNOW this LOCK will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. And if you are going to try and fool us by cutting and pasting from another website, at least figure out how to remove all the HTML and other garbage. People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation. They are stats that any of us can get anywhere on the internet. Also, how about if you have actually SEEN the team play that you pick. I'd say that if you haven't seen a team play at least a few times, you can't really be an expert on said team.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND I WILL TRACK EVERY LOCK YOU POST - FREE OF CHARGE!!!!!!

I will try to get CONSENSUS statistics out before the first tips each day around 3:40 PM, PST.  There is no guarantee, however.

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

Good luck today and let's work together to win some cash!

-USC Holmey


ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 25, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:01 am

Howdy "Boarders".....

LOCK #3

Green Bay -7.5
.........The NFC Championship is not the match-up everyone expected with the NYG going crazy on the road this year especially in the playoffs. Eli Manning has invoked images of his brother Peyton and has played virtually mistake-free football the past 2 games. The problem therein lies with a bit of reality: the G-Men have their injuries and although Tampa Bay and Dallas could not take advantage, the Packers most surely will. Green Bay did not panic after quickly getting behind 14-0 due to 2 fumbles by "2nd half of the regular season" stud Ryan Grant against Seattle last week. No, they continued to feed Grant the rock and utilize a run-first mentality on offense which ended up with Grant more than making up for his mistakes with 3 TDs and 201 rushing yards. On the defensive side of the ball, they exposed Seattle's weakness (the running game) and forced them to be one-dimensional in the passing game and it finally caught up to the 'Hawks. I see the Pack doing the same thing here against Eli and crew and force Eli to utilize the pass more often than desired. The Eli you've come to know and "expect" should re-surface especially in the snow/cold conditions. I definitely see the possibility of a Special Teams score for GB and a double digit win for them leading them back to the Big Game in sunny Arizona!

(pray for the best SB match-up of the remaining teams: NE v GB smiley)


ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:67
Level:Pro
Since:Feb 16, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:19 am
first ever LOCK: NEW ENGLAND -14.5 a gimpy LT, a gimpy Gates a VERY gimpy Rivers combined with NE rolling coverage to Chambers add to that the Moss domestic dispute issue means they rally around each other like every other negative PR hit for the Pats this yr  mixed with cold weather for a west coast  team has blowout written all over this game!

ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 14, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:21 am
Hey guys,

This is the one we've been waiting for.  3-0 on locks already and number 4 today.

LOCK #4  Green Bay Packers -7

Just like ADD, I love Green Bay here.  As a WI resident, the anticipation for this game is more than any I can remember.  The Packers got a huge gift last week when Dallas lost and they get to host the Championship Game.  The game in Green Bay made them the favorite and totally changed the mindset of the entire team.  A lot will be made about the weather for the game with a game time temp of 0 and wind chills of 15 below.  This temp would make it the second coldest game at Lambeau behind the Ice Bowl.  The weather shouldn't be a factor, however, because the wind will be minimal.  Both teams can effectively run the ball and I will take GB's passing game over the Giants.  On defense, both have very good front 7's, but the difference is the secondary.  The Giants look like a MASH unit while the Packers have one of the better secondaries in football.  In week 2 GB blew open a close game in the fourth quarter and won going away 35-13.  Both teams are completely different from that match-up, however.
In the end, it comes down to this.  Green Bay is a stellar 13-3-1 ATS this season and has been dominant for the last month.  The Giants will not be able to overcome 70,000 rabid fans and a team that is just superior on both offense and defense.  Green Bay goes on to the Super Bowl!!!!!!!!!

LOCK #4  GREEN BAY PACKERS -7 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

GBFAN has a fever, and the only cure is a trip to the SUPERBOWL!!!

ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:74
Level:Pro
Since:Nov 27, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:27 am

-MAJOR SIGH-.........

Guys........i'm almost on top of your picks.

I''m feeling NE by 13 - buy the point and get 13.5 (MAX), and I like the 2nd half of the Packers game (-4.5).  you guys need to really review the numbers (which I'm sure you have).  Mark this in stone......Mark this - GB loses by 3 in the Super Bowl......Props when deserved!.....


ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 25, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:36 am

"Boarders"....

I HIGHLY RECOMMEND BUYING THE HOOK IN THE GB GAME TO -7......I did!  I just recall that USC stated no buying points for LOCKS and my book and several others I checked all have it at -7.5 hence my Lock is -7.5......


ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
-
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Sep 2, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:41 am
Thanks, ADD.  Exactly right.

ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
-
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Sep 2, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:42 am
I'm 0 for the week. sorry

I've chimmed in here and there about plays and tailed some great picks as well.

Washington STate / Oregon game falls into a theory of mine.

I've mentioned that I don't play teams that have an "undefeated" stat on the page.

In this case, Washington State is 9-0 at home for the season. 

My theory holds true for lines starting at 5.5 and up.

In the end, buy it or not....but just notice teams that are undefeated for the season ....if they lose the line will be in between 5.5 and 8.5 (give or take...depending on the size of the upset).

I'm not locking up Oregon and I'm very partial to Tony Bennett and his Cougars, but it is what it is.

I'm sure a few Terp Fans thought Gary Williams would win....but who else took MD moneyLine.??

ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:93
Level:All-Star
Since:Dec 27, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:42 am
LOCK: INTER - PARMA OVER 2.5

Game is at 2:30 EST.  I've pushed on my first two locks, but they both had lines that tended a half a goal against me.  Today, I've got the standard line for a game I like to easily go over.  Inter is the class of the Serie A this year, and rarely ever scores less than 2, especially recently.  They have two phenomenal goal scorers in Ibrahimovic and Cruz.  I like them to win the game too, but I'm not underestimating Parma.  Parma always seems to show up against the big boys; I don't expect anything less tomorrow.  Envision a fast paced game; could be 2-1, could be 3-2, could be 5-0.  In any case, the over is safe.

ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:94
Level:All-Star
Since:Dec 28, 2006

January 20, 2008 12:46 am
What up Holmey nice call on the over today...keep up the good work!

ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Sep 2, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:47 am
Hey tyks.  Where you been?  You gonna get back in the action?

ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:94
Level:All-Star
Since:Dec 28, 2006

January 20, 2008 12:50 am
Been Waiting for league play to start.  Ready got go for Big Monday.  Gald to see we are up in running.  Did lay some on MD +12 2nd half today BANG!!!!!

ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Sep 2, 2007

January 20, 2008 12:54 am

Nice!  Good for you.  Great to have you back.

That's a Top-10 avatar in my book, too!


ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:94
Level:All-Star
Since:Dec 28, 2006

January 20, 2008 12:56 am
Terps are for real but had TO MANY bad losses already, they need to go .500 in ACC to have a chance.  BIG game tomorrow LETS GO BIG BLUE!!!

ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:78
Level:Pro
Since:Dec 10, 2007

January 20, 2008 1:11 am

What up y'all?  How bout them DRAKE BULLDOGS!  Do they come off the Sheeet list now? 

Computer's been down so haven't been able to get on the thread and celebrate the excellent day!


ORIGINAL LOCK THREAD 1/20 Day 7 - Post Your LOCK
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Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 1, 2006

January 20, 2008 1:19 am
Finished up 3-1 on the week for locks, cannot post a lock today on cbs but did post one in the cave where i am 11-4-1 and 8-1-1 last 10

*This is not a lock, just a strong play in terms of the lock thread*