Scott White

I didn't like Ervin Santana as a Fantasy sleeper.

And then I did. And now I don't.

Coming off a great sophomore season in which he went 16-8 with a 1.23 WHIP in 2006, he took 2 1/2 steps backward in 2007, going 7-14 with a 1.55 WHIP. I didn't like the trend, and so I didn't want him.

But then he had those crazy splits -- that 8.38 ERA on the road compared to the 3.27 mark at home that suggested maybe he had some semblance of goodness hidden deep within. And when he went all Dizzy Dean in winter ball, he looked ready to unveil it.

I bought. We all kind of did.

But early this spring, the picture has already changed for me. Through three starts, Santana has an ERA of 8.31, having allowed eight earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. He allowed four runs in four innings in his most recent start Sunday. I understand a lot of pitchers need time to find their form early in the spring, but Santana pitched in winter ball. He should kind of have it tucked in his back pocket already, right?

And obviously, I don't mean to overreact. If Chris R. Young or A.J. Burnett or anyone remotely established had an 8.31 ERA right now, I wouldn't care in the slightest. But with Santana, I based his sleeper status mostly on his performance in winter ball. Do those stats really have any more meaning than spring training stats?

But, you know, if Santana starts pitching great again in the latter days of March, I reserve the right to change my mind. Again.

That's all for now.