Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA
Posted on: May 12, 2008 1:26 pm
Edited on: May 12, 2008 5:37 pm
I wrote in my O.J. Mayo column that "the make-it-to-the-NBA rate for top 10 high school prospects is remarkably high."
Then I told you to "check the numbers" if you don't believe me.
Problem is, I didn't provide the numbers and the numbers aren't easy to check. So I've spent the past few minutes checking the numbers for you, and what I've found is indeed remarkable. I took Scout.com's top 10 lists from the Class of 2002 through the Class of 2007, looked at every prospect from those lists and given their current level of basketball.
Check it out ...
-- 2002 --
1. Amare Stoudemire (NBA)
2. Carmelo Anthony (NBA)
3. Raymond Felton (NBA)
4. Paul Davis (NBA)
5. Jason Fraser (Professional overseas)
6. Chris Bosh (NBA)
7. Rashad McCants (NBA)
8. Shelden Williams (NBA)
9. DeAngelo Collins (West Coast Pro Basketball League)
10. Sean May (NBA)
-- 2003 --
1. LeBron James (NBA)
2. Luol Deng (NBA)
3. Ndudi Ebi (Professional overseas)
4. David Padgett (Just finished college)
5. Shannon Brown (NBA)
6. Kendrick Perkins (NBA)
7. Charlie Villanueva (NBA)
8. Leon Powe (NBA)
9. Chris Paul (NBA)
10. Mustafa Shakur (Professional overseas)
-- 2004 --
1. Dwight Howard (NBA)
2. Shaun Livingston (NBA)
3. Al Jefferson (NBA)
4. Rudy Gay (NBA)
5. Josh Smith (NBA)
6. Robert Swift (NBA)
7. Marvin Williams (NBA)
8. Randolph Morris (NBA)
9. Sebastian Telfair (NBA)
10. Malik Hairston (Just finished college)
-- 2005 --
1. Josh McRoberts (NBA)
2. Gerald Green (NBA)
3. Monta Ellis (NBA)
4. Martell Webster (NBA)
5. Louis Williams (NBA)
6. Andray Blatche (NBA)
7. Tyler Hansbrough (Still in college)
8. Julian Wright (NBA)
9. Andrew Bynum (NBA)
10. C.J. Miles (NBA)
-- 2006 --
1. Greg Oden (NBA)
2. Kevin Durant (NBA)
3. Brandan Wright (NBA)
4. Spencer Hawes (NBA)
5. Ty Lawson (Just entered draft early)
6. Thaddeus Young (NBA)
7. Wayne Ellington (Just entered draft early)
8. Chase Budinger (Just entered draft early)
9. Darrell Arthur (Just entered draft early)
10. Paul Harris (Still in college)
-- 2007 --
1. OJ. Mayo (Just entered draft early)
2. Michael Beasley (Just entered draft early)
3. Kevin Love (Just entered draft early)
4. Eric Gordon (Just entered draft early)
5. Derrick Rose (Just entered draft early)
6. Kyle Singler (Still in college)
7. Bill Walker (Just entered draft early)
8. Donte' Greene (Just entered draft early)
9. Jerryd Bayless (Just entered draft early)
10. Nick Calathes (Still in college)
In all, there are 60 players listed. Of those 60, 18 -- including everybody on the 2007 list -- played college basketball this season. So that leaves 42 top 10 players from the past six classes who could've been on an NBA roster this season, and would you believe 38 actually were? The only missing players were Jason Fraser (2002), DeAngelo Collins (2002), Ndudi Ebi (2003) and Mustafa Shakur (2003), and three of those (Shakur, Ebi and Fraser) made a decent salary playing professionally overseas this season.
Anyway, here's the bottom line: The make-it-to-the-NBA rate for top 10 high school prospects since 2002 seems to be better than 90 percent. That's a stunning number, and it's why it makes sense for runners like Rodney Guillory to try to create relationships with elite prospects at an early age, because basketball is one of the few sports where being an elite level high school player practically guarantees a person will be a professional. There is almost no risk that a top 10 high school player won't make the NBA. So if you could spend $30,000 nurturing a relationship with such a player then it's reasonable to call it a wise investment (as long as you don't get caught, of course).
(It's worth noting this season's All-NBA first team -- Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard -- were all top 10 high school prospects in their respective classes.)
Comments
Reputation: 91
Level: All-Star Since: Mar 12, 2008 
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Posted on: May 12, 2008 3:25 pm
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAI think you should make this list in 4 years and see where mayo is. He is such a joke. Dajuan Wagner anyone??? I just want Kelvin Sampson to say something. Come out against Tim Floyd, Miles Brand, and all other jokesters that ran him out of Bloomington. I am not a Sampson fan, but USC and Floyd knew what was going on. Sampson made too many phone calls, Floyd is allowing player to be paid while playing? No wonder he kept saying mayo needs to go to the draft, he wanted this mess to get over quick. If a player has a cell phone and he can't afford one because he came from a less fortunate family then that should be the first sign. Then the plasma?? You are telling me no USC officials ever see the players dorms? The facts dont add up, and I cant wait till this guy flops. There isn't one player on those lists that mayo was ever better than in college, hell even Ebi looked like a better pro prospect with all that athleticism. USC is garbage, so is Mayo, and Floyd. Have fun with all those scholarships lost by academics, and now potentially mayo.
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Reputation: 94
Level: All-Star Since: Nov 19, 2006
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Posted on: May 12, 2008 3:28 pm
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAI believe is Collins is in the NBA DL playing for the Florida Flame. |
Reputation: 80
Level: All-Star Since: May 12, 2008
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Posted on: May 12, 2008 4:31 pm
Jason FraserPoor kid went through 7 surgeries at while at Villanova, could barely run straight by his senior year, and still made a pro team in Australia: |
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Reputation: 73
Level: Pro Since: Apr 21, 2008
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