CFB: Analysis of new futures odds to win 2018 title

SportsLine college football anaylst Josh Nagel takes a look at the adjusted sportsbook future odds for teams to win the national title.

 

Sportsbook odds on next season's national champion were posted in January, right after Clemson defeated Alabama for the national title.

Although most clubs are within the ballpark of their opening numbers, some have seen significant movement.

We took a look at the posted openers with some analysis, and here is some new insight based on the updated numbers:

Alabama (Open: 3/1, current: +350): This is probably about the best price you'll find on an Alabama team that is bound to be in contention for the national title again and returns a ton of talent led by dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts and a host of playmakers on both sides of the ball.

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Odds to Win 2018 CFB title

(courtesy of William Hill US)

 Team Odds
 Alabama +350
 Ohio State 4/1
 USC 7/1
 Florida State 7/1
 Oklahoma 15/1
 Michigan 15/1
 Penn State 20/1
 Washington 20/1
 LSU 22/1
 Auburn 22/1
 Clemson 28/1
 Notre Dame 28/1
 Louisville 30/1
 Wisconsin 30/1
 Georgia 30/1
 Texas 40/1
 Stanford 40/1
 Oklahoma State 50/1
 Florida 50/1
 Tennessee 60/1

Ohio State (Open: 8/1, current: 4/1): Urban Meyer's clubs will always get their fair share of respect in the market, as evidenced by the already-rapid drop in their price. The Buckeyes have appeared in two of the first three playoffs, and should be a viable contender again behind Heisman candidate J.T. Barrett and a strong returning cast.

USC (Open: 8/1, current: 7/1): The hype machine is back in overdrive on the Trojans after their late-season surge ended in a Rose Bowl win last season. Early Heisman front-runner Sam Darnold leads a talented cast that should contend for the Pac-12 title, but USC also lost a ton of explsoive playmakers to the NFL Draft, including wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster.

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Florida State (Open: 7/1, current: 7/1): The Seminoles have a chance to reclaim the ACC in what rates to be a rebuilding year for Clemson. Standout quarterback Deondre Francois returns, but the Seminoles will feel the loss of running back Dalvin Cook and most of their receiving corps.

Oklahoma (Open: 8/1, current: 15/1): The odds have understandably dropped amid the surprise retirement of longtime coach Bob Stoops, with the reins given to young offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley. The off-field problems of quarterback Baker Mayfield aren?t helping matters, either.

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Michigan (Open: 12/1, current: 15/1): The Wolverines have yet to beat Ohio State with Jim Harbaugh as their head coach. The rivalry game remains an obstacle, and the Wolverines also lost a wealth of playmakers to the NFL on both sides of the ball.

Penn State (Open: 25/1, current: 15/1): There's already been quite a bit of early support for the Nittany Lions who, similar to USC, finished last season on a tear that included winning the Big 10 title game and a Rose Bowl appearance. Dual-threat quarterback trace McSorley and friends should continue putting impressive offensive numbers.

Washington (Open: 30/1, current: 20/1): The Huskies appeared a year ahead of schedule last season when they dominated the Pac-12 on their way to a conference championship and playoff berth. Quarterback Jake Browning should be a Heisman candidate who puts the Huskies in position for a repeat run to the postseason.

LSU (Open: 12/1, current: 22/1): Ed Orgeron will begin his first full year at the helm of the Tigers with an ultra-talented roster, and running back Derrius Grice could be one of the most explosive players in the country. But a brutal schedule provides a serious roadblock to LSU?s chances to contend for the SEC and national titles.

Auburn (Open: 25/1, current: 22/1): The Tigers played outstanding defense last season, but were felled by inconsistent quarterback play. Hopes are high this season they will fix that issue with highly touted Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham behind center.

Clemson (Open: 20/1, current: 28/1): The heart of the Tigers' championship team is gone, with iconic quarterback Deshaun Watson, running back Wayne Gallman and receiver Mike Williams, among others, headed to play on Sundays. This looks to be an inevitable rebuilding year for Clemson.

Notre Dame (Open: 60/1, current: 28/1): The public loves to support the Irish, likely explaining the drop in their odds. While they are likely to be competitive, a tough schedule is always a hindrance and they will be breaking in new quarterback Brandon Wimbush after DeShone Kizer moved on to the NFL.

Louisville (Open: 10/1, Current: 30/1): Reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson returns, but the Cardinals have a lot of question marks. They lost a ton of playmakers on defense and their late-season slide last year showed that upper-tier teams are capable of slowing their explosive offense.

Wisconsin (Open: 40/1, Current: 30/1): The physical, gritty Badgers have had one of the top defensive units in the country the past two seasons. They should again be in position to compete for a berth in the Big 10 title game, which could lead to a playoff appearance.

Georgia (Open: 30/1. Current: 30/1): The Bulldogs had an inconsistent season under first-year coach Kirby Smart. But if they shore up the defense and get expected improvement from promising quarterback Jacob Eason, they could be in the mix for the SEC title.

Texas (Open: 20/1, Current: 40/1): New coach Tom Herman already has a reputation for rapid program turnarounds based on his work at Houston. Even though the Longhorns give him plenty of talent to work with, contending for a playoff berth feels a bit overly ambitious.

Stanford (Open: 60/1, Current: 40/1): Under David Shaw, the Cardinal's defense will always make it a viable contender in the Pac-12. But Shaw?s relentless passion for milquetoast offense is also why Stanford hasn?t made the next step to national-title contention.

Oklahoma State (Open: 20/1, Current: 50/1): The Cowboys ended last year on a roll, and they should have one of the most explosive offensive units in the country led by standout quarterback Mason Rudolph. They should be a contender for the Big 12 title, which would give them an outside chance at the playoffs.

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Florida (Open: 40/1, Current: 50/1): The Gators have reached two straight SEC title game mostly on the strength of a sterling defense, while offensive production has been an issue. But they might have just received a lot of help in that regard by landing quarterback Malik Zaire, the talented dual-threat graduate transfer from Notre Dame.

Tennessee (Open: 40/1, Current: 60/1): Playmaking quarterback Joshua Dobbs has moved on to the NFL, and the Volunteers have developed alarming trend under coach Butch Jones of failing reach results that meet their talent level.