Editor's note: Each day leading up to Super Bowl 50, we highlight one prop a SportsLine analyst feels strongly about. We use current lines from the Westgate LV SuperBook.
Total receiving yards by Demaryius Thomas
Over 69.5 (-110)
Under 69.5 (-110)
Quarterbacks learned quickly to be careful throwing Josh Norman's way.
After Norman intercepted four passes in Carolina's first four games -- returning two for touchdowns -- quarterbacks shied away from him and he was shutout the rest of the year.
For the season, quarterbacks posted a 54.7 passer rating -- third-lowest in the NFL -- when throwing into Norman's coverage.
Peyton Manning is smart. He knows Denver's chance of winning Super Bowl 50 hinges on his ability to avoid turnovers. So while he'll likely hit Demaryius Thomas with bubble screens and other safe throws, he's not likely to target him downfield much.
Not with Norman draped all over him. Norman is expected to shadow Thomas outside while Emmanuel Sanders, who often plays the slot, faces Carolina's lesser corners.
Now that is a matchup Manning can exploit.
Thomas has had a strange season, in part due to the Broncos' instability at quarterback. He racked up 1,304 receiving yards -- seventh-most in the NFL -- but dropped nine passes, tied for fifth. He caught just 58 percent of his targets.
Thomas averaged a career-low 12.4 yards per catch. At that rate, Thomas would need six catches to eclipse 69.5 receiving yards.
In two playoff games, Thomas caught six of 15 targets for 52 yards. He's gone for 70-plus receiving yards twice in the past nine games overall.
I was surprised to see this prop jump to 69.5 yards after opening at 67.5. Early action has come in on the Over. I'll confidently go the other way.
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