The Spurs (34-6) and Cavaliers (27-9) are both peaking offensively heading into Thursday's meeting, which is one of the main reasons they have won nine and eight consecutive games, respectively.
San Antonio has scored 100 points or more in each game of its winning streak, averaging almost 111 during that stretch. The Over is 6-3 in those games for the Spurs, going 5-1 in the last six.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has seen the Over cash in four of its past five following a string of nine Unders in 10 games. The Cavs have averaged nearly 115 points per game in their previous five, and they have failed to reach the century mark in scoring only twice during their winning streak.
In the last 11 games between San Antonio and Cleveland, the total has dipped Under just twice, although both of those matchups were played at the latter's Quicken Loans Arena. The Over is on a 7-0 run at the former's AT&T Center, including a 128-125 overtime win for the Cavs the last time they met on March 12.
Cleveland point guard Kyrie Irving erupted for a career-high 57 points in that game, and his team is 9-1 straight-up and 5-5 against the spread since he returned from offseason knee surgery. Irving's presence makes the Over a good bet to cash again as he matches up with Tony Parker of the Spurs.
Parker had a season-high 31 points in a 109-99 road victory against the Pistons on Tuesday, and he and Irving will both push the tempo in what will be another high-scoring affair. I like the Over, and the SportsLine Projection Model does too with a solid B-rated play on it.
Simo's pick: Over (195.5); SportsLine's pick: Over
Matty is 84-73-1 on NBA picks when agreeing with the SportsLine Projection Model and 109-107-2 overall.
Editor's note: Lines are subject to change. At the time of filing, the writer used the SportsLine numbers, which come from a Covers Consensus of major sportsbooks.
Matty Simo is a Vegas-based reporter who has covered the sports betting scene on and off the Strip since 1996. His analytical approach to handicapping leads him to look outside the box score for situational and motivational angles.