Mike's Picks (2 Live)
Mike's Past Picks
My simulations make Arizona -9 vs. Clemson in this matchup. Arizona has a sizable rebounding edge, doesn't put opponents on the foul line often, and will really push Clemson with pace.
My simulations make JMU just +4 in this matchup with Duke. JMU is strong enough on the offensive glass and scoring in transition with their tempo. With the crowd definitely leaning towards the Duke's I think this number is a little short here. Take the +7.5
My simulations are very high on Gonzaga again in the second round. Kansas has very little depth without Kevin McCullar. Kansas plays at a very similar pace which will make this matchup comfortable for the Zags. I make this line -7.
While the free throw shooting will likely be a concern later in the tournament, Saint Mary's has a massive rebounding and defensive edge in this matchup. The contrast in styles isn't an issue as most matchups are a contrast of styles for this team. I make the Gaels -7.5 in this matchup.
My simulations make Colorado -2.5 favorites in this matchup with Florida. Colorado is a legit top 20 offense and one of the best free throw shooting teams in the tournament. Injuries on the Florida side combined with a discipline Colorado defense (top 15 in defensive FT rate) will be the difference.
I like this matchup for Clemson as my simulations make them -2 favorites against New Mexico. Clemson is used to the contrasting styles in terms of pace of play in the ACC. The difference here will be the free throw line where Clemson is one of the best teams in the country at nearly 80% from the line.
This is a great matchup and overall location for Drake. My simulations make the Bulldogs -2.5 favorites against Washington State.
McNeese has been a great team all season but Gonzaga is still on a different level here as they figured things out down the stretch. The biggest knock on McNeese is the atrocious free throw shooting at just 68 percent as a team, and Gonzaga simply doesn't put opponents on the line often. I make this line Gonzaga -9.
My simulations make Michigan State -3.5 favorites in this early start neutral site game. Both teams play at a very similar pace as both are better defensively than offensively. I give Michigan State the edge on the offensive glass and at the free throw line.
My simulations make Kentucky -8 favorites in this matchup with Texas A&M. Kentucky has the rest advantage, good crowd support in Nashville, and distinct edges offensively and at the free throw line. Lay it at -5 or better.
Butler enters the conference tournament well-rested in a rematch with Xavier. Butler is the better free throw shooting team and one of the best teams in CBB in terms of defensive free throw rate. My simulations make Butler -3 favorites on the neutral court. I will share more on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.
I love both of these teams in the tournament this year but the number is too wide in this matchup. I make Kentucky a +6.5 underdog here with the extra three points being a pretty critical number going up to 4 full possessions. Lock in the +9.5 (-110) on DraftKings. I would still play the +8.5 on FanDuel and elsewhere. I will share more on the Early Edge Saturday morning.
I like Tennessee -4.5 (-115) on FanDuel or -5 (-110) on DraftKings. I make this line -7.5 for Tennessee despite the road matchup. The Vols lost 63-59 in the first matchup but ShotQuality data suggests they should have won by 11 points. Contrasting styles and Tennessee has a strong rebounding edge. I'll share more on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.