SportsLine's principal data engineer, Stephen specializes in sports simulations, projections and advanced statistical analysis. He is a co-founder of AccuScore. In 2015, the SportsLine Projection Model created by Stephen went 99-63 (61 percent) on A-rated college football ATS picks and 35-27 (57 percent) on A-rated NFL ATS picks.
LAST 19 NFL ML PICKS
11-8 LAST 19 NFL ML PICKS | +1145
My projection model suggests the Gamecocks should be at least six points better Wednesday on their home court than the visiting Gators. South Carolina is undefeated in SEC play and has won four straight overall, including three straight by double figures. Florida also is unbeaten in conference play but could be in a potential letdown spot after Saturday?s taxing overtime game against Georgia. I look for the Gamecocks to take advantage and have the edge here.
11-8-1 in last 20 CBB picks | +300
My simulations show the high-powered Hoosiers as at least 10 points better than the Nittany Lions when they meet Wednesday in Big 10 action. Penn State has been a strong team ATS, particularly in home underdog spots, which includes a straight-up win over Michigan State. But its lack of firepower -- 12 points per game fewer than Indiana -- rates to be an issue against a Hoosiers team that is desperate to climb out of the 2-3 hole they have dug themselves in conference play. Back the chalk here.
The Raptors have beaten the 76ers 14 straight times, and I like them to cover this modest number Wednesday night. Toronto won by nine in Philly a little over a month ago. In my simulations, the Raptors are covering Wednesday's matchup 62 percent of the time. Lay the points.
3-2-0 in last 5 NBA ATS picks | +80
Back the Fighting Irish, the only undefeated team in ACC play, despite the tough atmosphere they're going into. FSU has won 15 straight home games, but this is too many points to give a Notre Dame team that always closes strong. In my simulations, the Irish are covering 65 percent of the time. Grab the points.
The Over is 6-2 in Memphis' last eight road games, and I like the trend to continue against the fast-paced Wizards. I'm projecting 215 points, giving us a nice cushion above this total. The Over is cashing in 69 percent of my simulations.
The Over is 8-2 in the Spurs' last 10 games, and 6-2 in these teams' last eight meetings in San Antonio. I'm projecting 208 points, giving us a nice cushion above this total. The Over is cashing in 63 percent of my simulations. Go Over.
Wesley Matthews is getting hot for the Mavericks, who moved the ball well in winning their past two games. My simulations show Dallas keeping this one extremely close and covering 61 percent of the time. Look for the underdog to improve to 6-1 in the past seven Bulls-Mavs meetings.
The Heat have lost four straight and 13 of their last 15 as they host the explosive Rockets, who are coming off a 25-point win in Brooklyn. But my simulations show Miami keeping this close and covering 61 percent of the time. The home team has covered five of the past six meetings in this series. Grab the points.
My projection model shows Georgia and Vanderbilt playing a one-score game Tuesday. Georgia grinds out games with one of the country?s top half-court defenses, but could have tired legs after pushing Florida to overtime in an 80-76 loss in which it led most of regulation. Vanderbilt will be looking to bounce back from a home loss to Tennessee on Saturday as mid-size favorite. The Commodores have an edge in firepower and should be in this game until the end.
The Aggies are struggling at 9-7 and 1-4 in SEC play, but this sets up as a nice bounceback spot following their eight-point loss at Mississippi State. Texas A&M has covered four straight home games against Arkansas. In my simulations, the Aggies are covering Tuesday's game 62 percent of the time. Lay the points.
My simulations show the slight-underdog Cyclones winning the game straight up by four points when they host Kansas on Monday night. Iowa State has played well in the series of late, particularly at home, and is looking to rebound from a tough four-game stretch in which it suffered two close losses, including Saturday at TCU. Kansas has won 16 straight since a season-opening loss, but could be in a letdown spot after a hard-fought game Saturday against Oklahoma State. Back the Cyclones in this one.
Creighton visits Xavier on Monday afternoon in a matchup of Top-15 teams. The Musketeers collapsed in the second half of their past two games, and my simulations show the Bluejays quite possibly winning outright Monday and covering 67 percent of the time. Grab the points with a Creighton team whose only loss came to Villanova.
The Bearcats have won seven straight and are red-hot from 3-point range, having gone 35 of 74 over their last three. In my projections, they're covering against East Carolina 67 percent of the time. Lay the points.
My projection model suggest a value side on a powerful UCLA club laying such a small road number Saturday against rugged Utah. The Bruins made 19 three-pointers in their 104-89 win over Colorado, topping 50 points in reach half while shooting 56.5 percent for the game. The Utes are historically a tough out on their home court, but the majority of their wins have come against weak opponents. They won?t be able to keep up with the Bruins.
My simulations show the high-flying Wildcats winning this Big East battle by nearly 20 points Saturday over the struggling Red Storm. Villanova has bounced back from its lone loss of the season with a pair of double-figure victories, including a 25-point rout of Xavier in its last outing. St. John?s has dropped its last three games by double figures as it struggles to compete with the upper tier of the conference. Look for the trend to continue Saturday.
The 76ers are on a high after their last-second comeback win over the Knicks, but I think they're in trouble against a solid Charlotte team coming off a loss. In my simulations, the Hornets are covering this one 64 percent of the time. Look for Charlotte to cover for the fifth time in its past six visits to Philly. Lay the points.
My simulations suggest a double-figure victory Thursday for a Northwestern team that needs to pile up wins in order to secure its first NCAA Tournament berth. The Wildcats had a nine-game winning streak against meager competition, but saw their momentum halted in consecutive losses to Michigan State and Minnesota. They won in their prior outing against Nebraska, and now need to avoid a letdown spot against a Rutgers club that has lost five straight, four by double figures. Lay the points.
The Fighting Irish are gunning for their first 4-0 ACC start, and I like their chances at Miami. In my simulations, Notre Dame gets it done 44 percent of the time, making this money line attractive. It's daunting that Miami has won 21 straight at home, but this is an experienced and efficient Irish team that won't be intimidated at all by the atmosphere.
My projections show the Wolverines beating the Illini by at least eight points when they meet Wednesday night in a Big 10 battle. These teams have identical 11-5 overall marks and 1-2 conference records. But the Wolverines have played the tougher schedule and have stayed competitive in their losses, while the Illini have seen each of their last four defeats come by double figures. Michigan has the better club and is in a value spot here.
The Gamecocks allow only 60 points per game and hold their opponents to 37.1 percent shooting from the field. They forced 25 turnovers in their weekend win over Texas A&M. In my simulations, they're beating Tennessee 65 percent of the time. Back South Carolina.
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