R.J.'s Pick (1 Live)
R.J.'s Past Picks
The Brewers have a big edge in the pitching matchup here with Freddy Peralta on the mound. He's walked just three batters in his last eight starts going back to last year, which has helped him allow just one earned run five times during that stretch. He pitched well in two of his three starts against the Cardinals as well. Kyle Gibson has had trouble keeping the ball in the park with five homers surrendered this year, and the Brewers are tied with the third-most homers on the year. With the Brewers outscoring the Cards by more than two runs per game, they're the clear side for me.
Triston McKenzie has struggled mightily in his first three starts, but this is a good spot for a turnaround. The A's average 2.95 runs per game as a team, and they've scored two or fewer in six of their last eight contests. The only worse offense than the A's is the White Sox, who McKenzie shut out for 5.2 innings in his one good start. McKenzie had a 2.96 ERA in his last full season, so the talent is there, and the expectation should be that the A's fail to get three earned runs on most starting pitchers.
The Yankees have won all three Clark Schmidt starts, but each has been by one run. They also won by multiple runs in just 10 of his 33 starts last year, as he's not effective enough of a pitcher to expect him to carry the load if the offense isn't clicking. This year, the Yankees have seven multirun wins in 19 games, so the percentages are already on our side. We just have to fade a rough outing from Tyler Alexander, who pitched well in six innings of relief his last time out.
CJ Abrams has been on an absolute tear for the Nats this season, securing 2+ bases in 10 of his 15 games with 10 of his 18 hits going for extra bases. The matchup at first glance looks tough with Justin Verlander making his season debut, but he was knocked around in two rehab starts in the minors, giving up six extra-base hits in one of them. Abrams also went 2 for 3 against Verlander last year when the latter was pitching much better and the former hadn't flashed as much power. We have multiple ways to hitting this plus-odds prop.
I believe the market is inflated to the Astros due to Justin Verlander making his debut. The 41-year-old gave up six earned run with six extra-base hits in just three innings in his first rehab start at Triple-A, then allowed another five earned runs in four innings at Double-A six days ago. While the Nats don't have the strongest offense, they should be able to take advantage of Verlander at this point of his delayed ramp-up for the season. The Astros have just six wins on the year and just two in their last nine games. With MacKenzie Gore coming off a gem on the other side, this is good value on the home team.
Reid Detmers and Zack Littell square off on Wednesday with two of the more impressive pitching starts of the season on their resume. The pair have combined to allow just four earned runs in 32.2 innings over three starts a piece. Both will be counted on to pitch deep into this game after these teams combined to use 13 relievers in yesterday's 13-inning marathon, and even though that game ended with 13 runs scored (apologies to the triskaidekaphobics), it was only 3-1 entering the bottom of the ninth. I expect a similar game in this one with not too many runs scored.
I didn't expect Hunter Greene to do his part in making yesterday's Reds-Mariners game a pitcher duel, but I'm more on board with a good start from Andrew Abbott here. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in two-thirds of his MLB starts, including all three this year. The M's average just 3.39 runs and strike out 10.5 times per game, so the formula is there for Abbott to have success against a struggling Seattle lineup.
These two teams have played back-to-back extra-innings games, which has put a strain on both bullpens. The D-Backs bullpen has throw 192 pitches over the last two days, while the Cubs needed 123 pitches from their bullpen yesterday alone. That means Jordan Wicks should be tasked with not only completing the fifth inning for the first time this season but pitching into the sixth inning. The problem hasn't been his pitch count, which has been between 85 and 100 in all three starts, but racking up 19 Ks while putting 24 guys on base in just 12.2 innings. I expect the team to have him prioritize length today, throwing 100 pitches and getting through at least 16 outs.
I was on this play yesterday before this game was postponed, and I'm sticking with it here. Pasquantino has been locked in as of late, going 10 for 18 with three doubles and three homers in his last five games after a 4-for-37 start to the season. Jonathan Cannon, who is making his MLB debut, posted a 5.77 ERA in 11 Double-A starts last year but has been hurried to the majors after posting a 2.77 ERA in three Triple-A starts but with 10 hits and five walks in just 9.2 innings. This is a great matchup for Vinnie P and I like him to get 2+ bases today.
Tigers ace Tarik Skubal takes the mound against the Rangers, and he's picked up where he left off last year with two scoreless outings in his three starts. Skubal ended last year by allowing just one earned run in his final four starts, and aside from a couple late homers by the A's in his second outing, he's been almost untouchable. The Tigers have the clear pitching edge in this matchup, and I think it's worth making a F5 play here if you don't like the money line.
The Reds have played in 16 games this season, and only four of them have failed to get to nine total runs. Even a lower-scoring Mariners team has been under seven runs in just five of their 17 games this season, and all three Logan Gilbert starts got to seven runs. Hunter Greene has a career 4.64 ERA, and even with a great K rate I don't think we can expect a pitchers duel from him as the baseline for any game. It won't take much to make this at least a push, so I love the plus odds on the Over.
Hunter Brown gave up nine runs while recording just two outs in his last start, and now he has to face the top scoring offense in the majors. That's not a recipe for working out the issues that have caused him to give up at least five earned runs in five of his last seven starts dating back to last season. Reynaldo Lopez has pitched well on the other side, but even if he regresses today I like the Braves offense to outslug the Astros here.
Ryan Weathers is on the mound for the Marlins, and it's a great matchup for Jorge Soler, who has always been much better against lefties than righties in his career and delivered a 1.080 OPS in 135 plate appearances against southpaws last year. He's picking things up at the plate this year with a four-game hit streak that includes two extra-base hits. He's also playing in a familiar park after two seasons with the Marlins. I like his chances of getting an extra-base hit today.
The Orioles send Grayson Rodriguez to the mound Tuesday, and he's pitched well over his first three starts, averaging six innings and seven Ks while posting a 2.50 ERA. He gets to face a Twins team that is one of five in the majors to strike out at least 10 times per game and is near the bottom of the league in runs scored, with just one game over four runs in their last 10. Similar offensive struggles should allow Rodriguez to pitch at least six innings and get seven Ks, and I'll take the better value on the strikeout prop.