Larry's Past Picks
Only two Denver reserves played more than 10 minutes in Game 1, with four starters playing at least 37 minutes apiece. Jamal Murray tied with Nikola Jokic at a team-high 39 minutes and the point guard delivered 10 assists and six rebounds. He combined for 17 and 18 rebounds-plus-assists in his two previous matchups with LA this season. He also exceeded this prop in 13 of 20 playoff games (65 percent) last season. Look for another night of heavy usage and go over 11.5.
Without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers will need more from Russell Westbrook. I like backing the 35-year-old in the series opener because he's had plenty of rest. Westbrook cleared this prop total in all three meetings with Dallas this season, averaging 23 combined points, rebounds and assists.
The Rockies have lost six straight and sit 4-16 entering Sunday's doubleheader. In the opener, Cal Quantrill (0-2, 5.57 ERA) will try to slow down a Mariners lineup that's averaging six runs during the team's four-game win streak. Colorado has mustered just 10 runs during its losing streak. Back Seattle, on the run line, to stay hot.
Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker impressed in his MLB debut against the Dodgers, allowing two runs over five innings. I like Houston to do more damage Sunday because of how well the Astros hit lefties (.843 OPS, 2nd in MLB). Go Over 2.5 earned runs allowed for the 24-year-old rookie.
Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are out, and Duncan Robinson is questionable. Tyler Herro will run the offense and he has dished out 26 assists in his last three games. While this is an incredibly tough matchup, Herro's heavy usage should get him to 6-plus assists.
Giants starter Blake Snell hasn't looked good so far, but he's dominated Arizona in his career, going 5-1 with a 1.11 ERA. Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery had a 10.57 ERA in two starts at AAA this month. He's ramping up slowly. Back the Giants in the first five innings.
Brewers ace Freddy Peralta has fanned 26 and walked two in 17.2 innings, and on Friday he faces a Cardinals lineup that ranks 23rd in OPS (.665) versus right-handed pitching. St. Louis has scored three or fewer runs in five straight games. Milwaukee ranks second in OPS (.815) against right-handers; the Brewers could tee off against Kyle Gibson (6.16 ERA). At 36 years old, it's fair to wonder how much Gibson has left. Back the NL Central leaders on the road.
Tyler Herro went 9 of 27 from the field in Wednesday's 1-point loss at Philly. He did have nine assists, though. Without Jimmy Butler on the floor Friday, Herro's usage rate should skyrocket and I expect him to try to be more efficient instead of forcing shots. He's definitely going to get Bam Adebayo involved, as well as Miami's numerous 3-point shooters. The Bulls give up the most 3-point attempts in the league (39.4) so we could get a few assists that way as well.
In his three-year career, Arizona's Ryne Nelson has been excellent on the road (3.32 ERA) and horrific at home (7.02 ERA). On Thursday he pitches in San Francisco where he dominated the Giants twice last season, posting a 1.98 ERA over 13.2 innings. Logan Webb usually excels at home, but this season he's shown extreme vulnerability to left-handed batters; the D-Backs bring some potent ones in Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Joc Pederson. Arizona had the better travel situation entering this game and features the better bullpen. The Giants shouldn't be laying this big of a number.
The Hawks have an explosive offensive backcourt, so I expect big minutes from Alex Caruso, the Bulls' All-Defensive First Teamer. He's gone Over this prop number in three straight while playing 37, 34 and 41 minutes. Ayo Dosunmo (quad) is considered a gametime decision after missing four straight games. If he can't go, then Caruso will be needed even more.
Tyrese Maxey averaged 27.3 points and 8.3 assists in the regular season versus the Heat. In the last meeting, he played 41 minutes as Philly won 109-105 in Miami. With so much at stake Wednesday, look for Maxey to play about 40 minutes and clear this prop total.
Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has allowed a total of three earned runs over his last two starts vs. the Blue Jays and Rays. He owns an expected ERA of 2.43 and an expected batting average of .180. Look for Feltner to go five innings and give up two or fewer earned runs.
Cards lefty Steven Matz has a great matchup Thursday afternoon against the A's. Oakland sports a .599 OPS against lefties, fourth-worst. Matz owns a 1.80 ERA and has not allowed a homer in three starts. He's yet to pitch more than 5.1 innings, but this matchup should enable him to put together his longest start yet.
Kevin Gausman dealt with shoulder fatigue this spring, his velocity is down, and he enters this home start with an 11.57 ERA. Look for the Yankees to avoid the sweep behind Marcus Stroman, who tossed six scoreless innings against Toronto on April 5.
Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram played 23 minutes in his return Sunday from a knee injury that kept him out 12 games. His minutes are slated to increase in Tuesday's play-in game. After the Lakers' dominated in the paint in their 124-108 win Sunday, Ingram repeatedly spoke about the need to play with more force in Tuesda's rematch. Look for Ingram to grab at least five rebounds for the fourth straight time vs. LA.