Larry's Pick (1 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
In his three-year career, Arizona's Ryne Nelson has been excellent on the road (3.32 ERA) and horrific at home (7.02 ERA). On Thursday he pitches in San Francisco where he dominated the Giants twice last season, posting a 1.98 ERA over 13.2 innings. Logan Webb usually excels at home, but this season he's shown extreme vulnerability to left-handed batters; the D-Backs bring some potent ones in Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Joc Pederson. Arizona had the better travel situation entering this game and features the better bullpen. The Giants shouldn't be laying this big of a number.
The Hawks have an explosive offensive backcourt, so I expect big minutes from Alex Caruso, the Bulls' All-Defensive First Teamer. He's gone Over this prop number in three straight while playing 37, 34 and 41 minutes. Ayo Dosunmo (quad) is considered a gametime decision after missing four straight games. If he can't go, then Caruso will be needed even more.
Tyrese Maxey averaged 27.3 points and 8.3 assists in the regular season versus the Heat. In the last meeting, he played 41 minutes as Philly won 109-105 in Miami. With so much at stake Wednesday, look for Maxey to play about 40 minutes and clear this prop total.
Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has allowed a total of three earned runs over his last two starts vs. the Blue Jays and Rays. He owns an expected ERA of 2.43 and an expected batting average of .180. Look for Feltner to go five innings and give up two or fewer earned runs.
Cards lefty Steven Matz has a great matchup Thursday afternoon against the A's. Oakland sports a .599 OPS against lefties, fourth-worst. Matz owns a 1.80 ERA and has not allowed a homer in three starts. He's yet to pitch more than 5.1 innings, but this matchup should enable him to put together his longest start yet.
Kevin Gausman dealt with shoulder fatigue this spring, his velocity is down, and he enters this home start with an 11.57 ERA. Look for the Yankees to avoid the sweep behind Marcus Stroman, who tossed six scoreless innings against Toronto on April 5.
Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram played 23 minutes in his return Sunday from a knee injury that kept him out 12 games. His minutes are slated to increase in Tuesday's play-in game. After the Lakers' dominated in the paint in their 124-108 win Sunday, Ingram repeatedly spoke about the need to play with more force in Tuesda's rematch. Look for Ingram to grab at least five rebounds for the fourth straight time vs. LA.
The Marlins are 3-14 and now have to face Jordan Hicks, who's been dominant with a 0.83 WHIP. He also is pitching on an extra day of rest. Miami owns the NL's worst offense and is playing without RBI leader Jake Burger, who was put on the DL. Miami lefty Ryan Weathers has a 2.57 ERA but an expected ERA of 6.19. Facing a projected eight right-handed batters, look for Weathers to struggle in another Marlins' loss.
The Marlins are 3-13 and just put their leading RBI man, Jake Burger, on the disabled list. The right-handed slugger would have provided a boost against Giants lefthander Kyle Harrison. Miami is calling up Edward Cabrera (shoulder) to make this start, but he was originally scheduled to make one more AAA rehab start. He likely won't go long and then he'll turn it over to a Marlins bullpen taxed by the weekend series with Atlanta.
Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty faces a Twins team that strikes out more than any lineup besides Oakland's. The Twins own a 29.3 percent strikeout rate against righties. Flaherty has gone six innings in each of his starts this season, fanning 12 in 12 innings. Look for at least six strikeouts Sunday at home.
T.J. McConnell is averaging 7.0 assists this month and 9.3 assists in three meetings with the Hawks. Atlanta gives up 28.1 assists per game, tied for sixth-most. McConnell is playing at a high level right now and should get 20-plus minutes in what is a critical game for the Pacers. In the last two matchups against the Hawks, McConnell dished out 14 and 10 assists while playing an average of 24 minutes.
Keldon Johnson, Dominick Barlow, Charles Bassey, Cedi Osman, Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell are out for the Spurs, which should mean heavy minutes for Tre Jones. He recorded 11 assists the last time he faced Denver, on April 2. With Victor Wembanyama back in the lineup, Jones should notch at least seven assists for the fourth time in six games.
It's early, but so far the Blue Jays are striking out more at home than on the road. That sets up well for Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner. He's fanned 14 batters in 11 innings versus the Rays and Diamondbacks. Feltner's expected ERA is better than his actual ERA of 3.27, so I'm expecting a strong outing of around six innings.
With Brandon Ingram set to miss his 11th straight game, Pelicans forward Herb Jones should be on the floor again for nearly 40 minutes. He's averaging 37 minutes this month. This is a critical game, with New Orleans holding onto the No. 6 seed by a half-game. The Kings have given up 57 rebounds per game (sixth-most) over their last three outings, and Jones cleared this prop total in all three meetings with Sacramento this season (7, 5, 5 rebounds).