Let's face facts. Kansas State is no longer a program that deserves the "Bill Snyder factor" level of respect, particularly when it comes to picking ATS. This is a team that beat South Dakota by three and was held to six by West Virginia. Oh, and Snyder reportedly changed QBs last week without informing the rest of his staff. Texas, meanwhile, has bounced back after another mind-numbing loss to Maryland to win three straight and beat TCU by 15 last week. That's not to say the Longhorns will roll on Saturday; I do think they will struggle in the first half, but eventually the defense and athleticism of their playmakers will win out for a double-digit victory in Manhattan.

Texas being an eight-point favorite on the road against Kansas State feels like a trap and I want no part of the spread, but I do like the total in this game. Kansas State's offense ranks 97th in the country with 0.292 points per play, and it runs the ball on nearly 60% of its offensive snaps, and it would run more often if it hadn't been trailing so often this season. Combine that with a Texas defense that is allowing only 3.5 yards per rush, and I just don't see many points being scored here.

We're still not sure if Texas "is back" (an annual tradition in college football). But we do know this: Texas held USC to -5 rushing yards two weeks ago and held TCU to just 372 total yards in a win last week. Kansas State is last in the nation in offensive red zone touchdown percentage (18.18 percent). Defense will rule the day and the Longhorns will cruise in Manhattan.