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Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
The quality of these teams is closer than it has been in quite some time, but despite it being a road game for TCU, I still expect the Horned Frogs to handle the Longhorns. This line has been lowered a bit after Texas' tremendous showing against USC. And while I don't think TCU got points knocked off for its loss to Ohio State, that does factor into bettors' minds. Now that I have seen it bumped up to four and back down to three, I think there's significant value on the Frogs even if it is clearly the public side. Texas is still the team that lost to Maryland, and TCU is still the team went 11-3 under Gary Patterson last season.
TCU has flat-out owned Texas lately. The Horned Frogs’ average margin of victory in the last four meetings: 30 points. While another blowout appears unlikely, the teams’ difference in talent level could result in a double-digit separation. TCU is undeterred by playing on the road -- it has covered in seven of the latest 10 trips, and the 38 straight-up away wins dating to 2009 is the second-most in the country. The Longhorns needed last week’s win over Southern Cal to boost their morale, but cannot count on a repeat against a foe that has their number.
When people think of the Big 12 they think of offensive shootouts, but we aren't going to get one of those in Austin on Saturday night. The under has come through in five of the last six meetings between these teams, and I expect it to hit again this weekend. If you need further convincing, the under is 13-3 in TCU's last 16 road games, and since 2008 the under has gone 56-33-1 in Texas home games.