West Virginia is the better team, but West Virginia isn't 16.5 better than Kansas State in any stadium on the planet. Kansas State struggles with running quarterbacks, but Will Grier doesn't run. My simulations make West Virginia -13 home favorites. Take the points.

Although it'd be great to eventually see the key number of +17 here, this is still more than enough points to provide incentive on the underdog. Bill Snyder's rugged K-State club has long been a thorn for West Virginia's up-tempo offense. The Wildcats do it with time-consuming, run-based drives that limit possessions and a defense designed to limit big plays. The past four meetings have been decided by six or fewer points, and last year's 28 was the Mountaineers' highest output in that span. Look for the Wildcats to stay close again Saturday and possibly pull the upset.

There are few coaches I love placing my faith in more as an underdog than Kansas State's Bill Snyder. Since Snyder returned to Kansas State in 2009 his teams have gone 34-18 ATS as an underdog. That includes a 20-10 ATS record when on the road as a dog, and when the Wildcats are getting 14 points or more on the road? 8-2 ATS.