You will see me take Northwestern in this space plenty over the course of the season, just not here. While reports are that Clayton Thorson is indeed healthy coming off his ACL surgery, Northwestern is still down a number of key starters from last season, including star Justin Jackson. Meanwhile, Purdue returns almost all of its playmakers in Year 2 under Jeff Brohm and should see its defense take another step. Considering it's a home Big Ten opener and public value has shifted to the Wildcats now that Thorson has been declared healthy, I think the Boilermakers look great here to get revenge from last year's 10-point road loss.

Northwestern comes into the season on a 7-1 ATS run but just how healthy is quarterback Clayton Thorson? The Wildcats were 10-3 straight-up behind him last season and rattled off eight straight wins to close out the year -- including a 23-13 home win against Purdue. I have Northwestern three points better than the Boilermakers, but that's with a healthy Thorson. I also give Purdue +3 for home field and it showed last season to be underrated, going 9-4 ATS. Look for this to be a defensive game like most of their meetings are. The Under has cashed in 10 of their previous 13 meetings. Under is the play.

The trusty projection model sees a maximum of 42 points hitting the scoreboard Thursday between Northwestern and Purdue, making for a massive a value play on the Under. Both clubs have the core of their solid defensive units returning -- Northwestern allowed just 20.1 points per game last season. These clubs combined for 36 points in last year's meeting and I'm seeing a similarly low-scoring affair.

Last week, I released a play on Purdue -3.5 thinking it might be the best number we'd see on the Boilermakers. Instead, their opener against Northwestern has catapulted in the opposite direction, providing a major value spot on Purdue provided the lean is correct. Purdue has more experienced talent on offense and the home-field edge -- I don't see Pat Fitzgerald's historically gritty Wildcats pulling this one out. Let's exploit this cheap money line Thursday.

Purdue has a real good coach, Jeff Brohm, with a real good quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, and Northwestern is kind of reassembling after last year. Purdue has more experience, giving less than a field goal.

It's not often we get to see a Big Ten conference game on the first night of the season, and this matchup with Purdue and Northwestern provides value on the total. Northwestern must replace workhorse RB Justin Jackson, and QB Clayton Thorson is coming off a torn ACL in the bowl game, and there's no clear picture how healthy he's going to be. I expect both defenses to get the better of this matchup and I like the Under 52.5.