My first pick this bowl season comes for good reason. Fresno State is 10-2-1 against the spread this season with an 11-1 ATS mark against the past 12 teams it has faced with winning records. Those marks are so impressive, but with the spread being so close, the question is whether the Bulldogs are simply going to win this game. To me, there's little question that will be the case. Fresno State is allowing just 17 points per game and has already been to Hawaii this season. Houston is middle-of-the-road defensively and apt to letting up big plays. The Bulldogs cover and likely win this outright. But I'm glad I got the full three points.

HAWAII BOWL (Honolulu) -- A sub-50 total in a bowl game usually shouts for an Over. With this matchup, however, the reasons for going against the grain are persuasive. The teams have been on an extended parallel track on Unders, with Fresno hitting in 13 of the past 16 outings and Houston 14 of 17. Eight of the last nine Fresno games have wound up in the 30s or 40s. Houston’s two most recent games have been limited to 37 and 38 points. The Cougars’ defensive line is anchored by Outland Trophy recipient Ed Oliver and it figures to contain the Bulldogs’ ailing ground game, which has carved out just 3.5 yards per carry on the past three play dates. Fresno doled out just 17.2 points per game, and it takes on the Coogs’ third QB starter this season, D’Eriq King.

HAWAII BOWL (Honolulu) -- Fresno State has been one of the best cover teams in the nation this season at 10-2-1 ATS. The Bulldogs have covered 11 of the last 12 games facing teams with winning records. Their success has been due to a stout defense allowing just 17 ppg and 319 ypg, which has helped their last nine games all stay Under. This is their second trip to Hawaii this season.. Houston has been up and down all season and have lost three of their last six, including a bad loss at Tulane as a big favorite. Fresno State gets the outright win.

HAWAII BOWL (Honolulu) -- The Bulldogs topped Boise State to close out the regular season, then lost the rematch in the Mountain West Championship Game. The job Jeff Tedford has done with the program earned him some sniffs at some bigger jobs during the coaching silly season, and he'll want to continue that momentum against a Cougars' squad that has been up-and-down in 2017. Major Applewhite's squad is 84th nationally in defense, and will get hit for some big plays from a Bulldog squad that is tied for 17th in the nation in plays of 30 or more yards (25).