ARMED FORCES BOWL (Fort Worth, Texas) -- This total has already dropped from the opener of 50, but Under still looms as the correct call. San Diego State can score quickly with play-action passes or with its explosive running backs, but Army is going to need long, clock-eating drives. The Aztecs are 4-1 to the Under in their past five bowl games, while the Knight are 5-0 Under against Mountain West opponents.

ARMED FORCES BOWL (Fort Worth, Texas) -- The military teams excel during the bowls in an ATS context, especially as underdogs. This game shapes up as an exception. Familiarity with the option offense that Army deploys is important, and the Aztecs faced two teams this season that operates it. The Cadets have all but deleted the pass from their playbook. San Diego State has limited its last four opponents to 82 or fewer ground yards. Its productive RB, Rashaad Penny, will keep Army?s O off the field and possibly force it to throw late.

ARMED FORCES BOWL (Fort Worth, Tex.) -- The Aztecs are awesome on the ground with Rashaad Penny, one of the best running backs in the country. But what did we see in the Army-Navy Game that stood out from the Black Knights? The ability and willingness to stay disciplined and smart against the run, and that trend will continue in the Armed Forces Bowl. Penny and Co. will get the win, but it'll be by a field goal in a low-scoring affair.

ARMED FORCES BOWL (Fort Worth, Tex.) -- High value lies with an Army team whose poor schedule has produced a solid line against San Diego State. Earlier in the season, San Diego State had attractive wins over Arizona State and Stanford. Yet, Army’s ground attack and improved defense should cause problems for a San Diego State offense that’s used to getting its way in the Mountain West. Grab Army.

ARMED FORCES BOWL (Fort Worth, Tex.) -- Army is the nation's top rushing team, but that's all it does -- and the Aztecs have the No. 8 rush defense against the nation. And against far tougher overall competition. My projections have San Diego State covering 64 percent of the time.