The Red Wolves have covered in five of seven games as favorites and are riding a 14-6 ATS wave overall. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover in four consecutive bowl games, Arkansas State QB Justice Hansen, who throws it a ton, has endured just over two sacks per game, and the Blue Raiders put little heat on the passer

CAMELLIA BOWL (Montgomery, Ala.) -- The trusty projection model sees the Red Wolves covering the short number against Blue Raiders more than 60 percent of the time. But it likes Arkansas State to win outright nearly 70 percent of the time, which makes our value on the short money line Saturday. Both teams are the finesse sort with creative offensive sets, but the Wolves should have more firepower Saturday.

CAMELLIA BOWL (Montgomery, Ala.) -- We've got two solid defenses that allow only 24 ppg each, and the result of that consistent defensive play has seen the majority of their games stay Under the total the past two seasons. Arkansas State has stayed under in 17 of its last 22 games, and MTSU has gone 9-2-1 to the Under this season. No reason to go away from the trend in this one.

CAMELLIA BOWL (Montgomery, Ala.) -- It's been a disappointing season in Murfreesboro for the Blue Raiders, but it will end on a high note with a big win over the Red Wolves in the Camellia Bowl. Middle Tennessee is in good hands with quarterback Brent Stockstill fully healthy, and closed the season 3-1 after he returned from a collarbone injury that cost him six games in the middle of the season. He threw for 10 touchdowns and only three picks over the final four games of the season, and will light up a Red Wolves passing defense that is 91st in the nation in pass defense (242.3 YPG) to win it outright.

CAMELLIA BOWL (Montgomery, Ala.) -- The Red Wolves are one of the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference. They?re explosive on both sides of the ball. The Blue Raiders have struggled this season on the defensive side of the ball and will find it very difficult to contain the spread attack of Arkansas State.