Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Expert Picks
Whether it's J.T. Barrett or Dwayne Haskins, I trust Ohio State's offense to be just fine on Saturday. Wisconsin's defense is the best overall unit in the game, but OSU is no slouch either on that side of the ball. The biggest discrepancy in the game is offense, and with the Buckeyes' ability to stop the run, I think they have the edge here. Ohio State was getting too much love with the initial line, but now it is just right. Urban Meyer is 5-2 in his career in conference title games with one of those losses coming to Nick Saban.
The price is now right to play the Buckeyes, who should have the upper hand Saturday in the Big 10 title game against Wisconsin. There was no value as the number hovered around 6 or 7, but the reduced price too tempting to pass on. The Badgers have been criticized for a soft schedule, but they are rugged on defense and efficient on offense. Even so, given Urban Meyer's pedigree and J.T. Barrett's experience in big games, I like the Buckeyes to emerge and cover.
The trusty projection model sees the Buckeyes toppling the Badgers about 70 percent of the time in the Big 10 title game Saturday. This spread is getting a little bit out of hand, so instead of laying nearly a touchdown, the favorite on the money line provides some value. Expect the Badgers to put up a fight, but their memorable season comes up short of a conference title and a playoff berth.
The wrong team is favored here. No, Wisconsin isn't sexy, but it is effective. The Buckeyes have quarterback questions following J.T. Barrett's bizarre pregame injury last week against Michigan, and the Badgers' defense is so well-coached that Barrett won't be able to shake free. Offensively, Wisconsin has a nice mix of ground game with stud freshman Jonathan Taylor and quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who's surprisingly effective going deep (8.8 yards per attempt is tops in the Big Ten). The Badgers will go old-school to win a low-scoring affair in Indianapolis.
The line here is a big-time slap in the face of the Wisconsin Badgers. The Buckeyes may, or may not have JT Barrett at QB. Even if he plays, the Badgers know they have little room for error if they want to punch their ticket into the CFP. Grab the points.
I still have Ohio State #2 in the country behind Alabama and am not one bit embarrassed to say it. Yes, I have Alabama #1 and Ohio State #2, and if the season were to be played 10,000 times those two teams would end up #1 and #2 more often than anyone. And that my friends is why a two-loss Ohio State team is still a touchdown favorite over an undefeated Wisconsin team. Ohio State has a slight advantage in the running game and a big advantage in the passing game. Wisconsin's defense played one of the softest schedules in the country. The average offense was #101 and the best offenses the Badgers faced this year were Florida Atlantic, Utah State and Nebraska. Against everyone else, they allowed 212 yards per game, but against those three offenses they allowed 277 per game. Now they play the 9th-best offense in the nation. Ohio State will be highly motivated to win by an impressive score.
While each team can put serious points on the board, the defense is what makes the Badgers (No. 1 nationally in yards allowed) and Buckeyes (No. 8) special. My projections show the Under hitting 65 percent of the time. Look for an old school, Big Ten slugfest for the title.