Florida is bad, but could Florida State be worse? Consider that the Seminoles have out-recruited the Gators in recent years, UF is severely injured and without its head coach ... and yet it put up a fight at South Carolina. As is normally the case, these teams are evenly matched for all of the wrong reasons. Giving me 5.5 points in a rivalry game in The Swamp when Florida has a chance to ruin Florida State's chance at continuing its bowl eligibility streak is too much to pass up.

It's a battle of two disappointing 4-6 squads in Gainesville, and Florida State is a dismal 1-7-2 ATS. The Seminoles have been outscored by a combined 66-17 in their previous two road contests versus Boston College and Clemson. Despite the Seminoles winning six of the last seven against the Gators, my simulations show Florida covering 69 percent of the time and projected to win this game by three. Take the points.