We've got a big number on the total here because Tulsa has some skills offensively, averaging 31 ppg while running for 276 ypg, but they're going to have some trouble living up to their averages tonight. South Florida's defense allows 19.9 ppg and just 118 rushing yards per game. Tulsa has stayed Under the total in its last four and has lost seven of its last eight games. It's too many points to lay, but Under is a definite play.

Tulsa’s 2-8 straight-up record is misleading. The Golden Hurricanes have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory three times in the final minute and dropped a fourth game narrowly. Their best ATS work is on the road, where they are 14-5 in the last 19 outings, mostly under coach Philip Montgomery. The Bulls lead the nation in interceptions per game, but Tulsa is ground-oriented, as its 15th-ranked rushing average per outing attests. USF could be dealing with distractions. It plays mega-rival Central Florida next week for a berth in the AAC championship game, and there is noise about coach Charlie Strong’s candidacy up the road at Florida. If the ‘Canes have not been beaten down by heartbreaking setbacks, they should make USF earn this one.