Coming off its massive blowout upset of Ohio State, my projections see little in the way of a letdown for the rock-solid Hawkeyes against Wisconsin. Because both teams have physical, stout defensive units and run-oriented offensive attacks, my numbers see a one-score game in 70 percent of simulations. This is massive value on the double-digit dog.

Kirk Ferentz, in his 18th season at Iowa, is the longest-tenured current head coach on the FBS level. One reason is a knack for scaring the pants — and sometimes beating those pants — off of high-ranked opponents. The Hawkeyes have covered in nine of the past 13 meetings with Wisconsin, which usually is north of them in the polls. The games tend to stay close, with seven of the last nine matchups determined by 10 points or fewer. The Badgers certainly have no shortage of incentive, what with a playoff invitation within reach, but lost two major players last Saturday. WR Quintez Cephus (leg) is their leading receiver, LB Chris Orr (leg) their No. 6 tackler. If the Hawkeyes can descend from cloud nine after mauling Ohio State, they will cover.