The Cougars have been strong defensively all season. Where they’ve struggled is against teams that can truly air it out. The Memphis offense is predicated on the intermediate-to-deep ball; this will be a high-scoring affair and you have to trust the offense that’s well equipped for a shootout.

I’m tempted to take Memphis money line (+140) because I’m not sure if it needs the points, but what the heck, it’s a weeknight road game and that field goal margin could come in handy. And that’s why Houston is favored in the first place. It’s tough enough to play on a short week, let alone as a road team, but Memphis has proven to be the better squad this year, particularly on offense. The Tigers have impressed with wins over Navy and UCLA. Though they were embarrassed at UCF, they're also playing a Cougars team that just got rocked on the road at Tulsa. Memphis is riding high, while Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games.

Grab a full field goal with Memphis while you can. The Tigers are covering 66 percent of my simulations for Thursday's game at Houston, and I won't be surprised at all if they win outright.