Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
This line has done a massive flip, from BYU opening as a field-goal favorite to being a slight underdog as of Friday afternoon. I'm not buying it one bit. The Cougars have struggled on offense, but have played two of the best defensive teams in the country in LSU and Wisconsin. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, Utah State has lost to Wisconsin and Wake Forest by a combined score of 10-5-20, with wins over Idaho State and San Jose State. BYU is the better team and gets the win here.
At the beginning of the season this spread would have been BYU -9, but an offense averaging just 9.8 ppg and failing to cover all four games can make a team rating dive dramatically. But this is definitely a downgrade in talent from what BYU has seen in its last three against ranked LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. BYU's starting QB is still gimpy so I think the best angle here is having BYU's defense control pace. They've stayed Under in 10 of their last 12 games and eight of the past 10 meetings with Utah State have also stayed Under. Under is the top play here.
BYU has scored a total of 39 points in four games and is 0-4 ATS. We can tell now there was a huge dropoff from Bronco Mendenhall to Kalani Sitake. To make matters worse, BYU lost starting QB Tanner Mangum two weeks ago for a indefinite time period. Now Beau Hodge takes over at QB, a four-point dropoff. Matt Wells has done a nice job at Utah State. BYU is the #1 game circled on the Aggies' calendar and it's not like they think BYU is invincibl. The Aggies won 35-20 in Provo two years ago.
The trusty projection model sees the Cougars winning this matchup at least two thirds of the time, and by an average of a touchdown per contest. But with a tricky key number looming, let's go ahead and play the moderate money line and book a winner on BYU.
BYU has been a vast disappointment that the public and sharps have been correct on. That’s unusual in college football. Circumstances are different in a matchup against Utah State. The Cougars have the athletic edge to overcome the injury to starting quarterback Tanner Mangum. Lay the points.