My data forecasts just 51 combined points between Northwestern and Nevada on Saturday. The Wildcats’ have a strong returning team, but their run-first, plodding style tends to lead to long drives that eat a lot of game clock. Nevada is breaking in an overhauled roster and should struggle to score against a veteran-laden defense.

The valuable hook on this key number has already disappeared at most outlets, but now is the time to act before this spread likely dips below 24. Nevada is viewed as a major unknown because of the overhaul in its coaching staff led by first-time head coach Jay Norvell and a largely revamped roster. But the Wolf Pack should have a decent offense, led by Alabama transfer David Cornwell at quarterback. Northwestern returns a lot of key players coming off a seven-win season, but the Wildcats rarely create separation as a big chalk, and this feels like too many points.