Air Force’s ability to pass is what separates its option attack from others, and the Falcons also have a very solid defense. But South Alabama can match opponents score for score. The Jaguars will struggle to stop Air Force, but they'll score enough to stay within this number.

Air Force has averaged 322 rushing ypg and South Alabama's defense allows 212 rush ypg, which gives me a huge reason to believe the Falcons will do their thing with ease. But the large spread has me cautious just because Air Force has failed to cover four straight this season as double-digit favorites and lost three of them outright. South Alabama hasn't covered in its last five, but they are scoring much more than they did to start the season. I'm looking for lots of points here with the Jaguars contributing their fare share. Over is the top play.