Texas-San Antonio hasn't played a rush attack like New Mexico's all season and the Roadrunners are going to have some trouble defending it like everyone else. The Lobos were No. 1 in the nation at 360 ypg on the ground and they're playing on their home field. The Roadrunners have been competitive all season and covered four of their last five, but they've lost four of six games on the road. The big problem here for them is going to be the 25 mph wind as they depend on the passing game. New Mexico has won six of seven (5-2 ATS) and I see their roll continuing in a lower-scoring game. Back the Lobos.

This game will be won on the perimeter. The Lobos do a great job of attacking the perimeter with their Pistol Option, while the Roadrunners do a great job pushing the ball downfield with their passing attack. I like the balance of UTSA, but I love the Lobos' ability to generate big plays quickly with their ground game. They?ll build up an early double-digit lead and keep UTSA playing catch-up the rest of the way.

This number will likely grow before kick-off Saturday. Similar to last season, the Lobos are on fire as the season winds down, winning six of their last seven while averaging 40 points per game. New Mexico’s explosive triple-option spread has four players with more than 500 rushing yards and 38 combined rushing TDs. UTSA has held up well against top-tier competition, allowing just 43 points combined to Colorado State and Texas A&M. Still, its resume is bereft of quality wins and the Roadrunners will be outmatched by a Lobos team that has a home-field advantage in this bowl game.