The Aztecs are a good value at this key number, after opening at just +3 in the Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday. Although Houston is clearly seeing its share of support, I think this is potentially a bad matchup for a team that tends to let down against lesser opponents. San Diego State and its physical rushing attack has been known to maul finesse opponents, and the Aztecs should be able to play to their strengths. They could win this outright, but the handful of points are too good of a deal to pass on.

This total has come way down, giving us value on the Over in what should be an entertaining Las Vegas Bowl. The Over is 5-1 in San Diego State's last six games overall and 4-1 in Houston's last five bowl games. The Cougars are coming off a 48-44 loss at Memphis; look for another quasi-shootout here.

This is a crazy-low looking total with an emphasis on these defenses allowing a combined 43 ppg. However, San Diego State is on a 5-1 run to the Over and the only game that stayed Under was its final game of the year at Wyoming in freezing windy conditions, and it only missed going Over by a TD. Las Vegas is expected have 20 mph winds in the morning but by noon it drops down to 11 mph with temps at 48 degrees. Houston's passing game is going to score, especially in the second half, and San Diego State's Donnel Pumphrey's (2,108 yards this season) is going to get his yards all game long. In Houston's losses to Navy and SMU, the Cougars were run on easily all game.

This game will come down to whether or not the Aztecs can keep Cougars DT Ed Oliver out of the backfield for the most part, so they can get their vaunted ground game going. Defensively, the Aztecs matchup very well against the Cougars, and will do a great job of getting stops defensively, while taking the air out of the ball on offense. Take San Diego State and the points.

The Aztecs won the Mountain West for the second straight year behind RB Donnel Pumphrey, who could become college football's all-time leading rusher with 108 yards in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Cougars faded toward season's end and their head coach just left for the Texas job. My simulations show San Diego State winning by 6 and covering 66 percent of the time.