This looms as a potential letdown spot for the Nittany Lions against improved Purdue, but I think the value side lies in going Under the posted total. The key to Penn State’s upset of Ohio State last week was a defense that bottled up J. T. Barrett and limited big plays by taking a conservative approach and tackling well. The Boilermakers limited a potent Nebraska offense to just 409 yards and repeatedly got off the field on third down. Look for the defenses to dictate pace here and send this Under what looks like a bit of a bloated total.

My simulations have this game staying Under a whopping 73 percent of the time. I'm projecting 46 points scored, giving us a double-digit cushion. Look for the Under to improve to 9-1-1 in these teams' last 11 meetings.