Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
These teams are very similar in that they boast tremendous backfield talent and can dominate with their running games. UNC is getting terrific play from QB Mitch Trubisky, who’s thrown 10 touchdowns to zero interceptions while completing nearly 75 percent of his throws. He'll have success against a thin Seminoles secondary. With the Tar Heels having legit weapons all over the field, I foresee a close game. Take the points.
Love the talent on both offenses. The Over has cashed in four straight FSU games, and six of UNC's last seven. This number seems a bit low given what the 'Noles and Tar Heels have put up this season.
The road team has covered the spread in the past five meetings between the Tar Heels and Seminoles, who have struggled defensively despite bouncing back from a loss to Louisville by beating South Florida last week. North Carolina has been involved in some shootouts and should be able to stay within double digits here. My simulations show the Heels covering 64 percent of the time and pulling off the outright upset 46 percent of the time.