Navy is the better defensive team and that is where this game will be won. Both teams will run a heavy triple option offense and Navy is better equipped to defend the option. The road game is a little concerning, but a touchdown is far too many points for Air Force to cover.

The two unbeaten service academies square off Saturday, with each looking to improve to 4-0. Navy offers a lot of value here based on its offensive style of play, which should dominate time of possession and keep the game close throughout. Air Force has played weaker competition so far, and my simulations have the Middies covering 68 percent of the time.

When triple-option teams face each other, you’re usually going to get a well-played, disciplined contest with few mistakes. This matchup will come down to defense, and both teams have shown an ability to get off the field on third down. While Air Force is better at the passing game, Navy has a slight edge with its front seven. Look for a close game as Navy stays within the number.