Yes, Bowling Green is a mess defensively right now, but that will change on Saturday against Eastern Michigan. Most of the defensive stats for the Falcons are skewed based on really bad losses to Ohio State and Memphis, undefeated teams that each scored 77 points against them. The Eagles obviously are not on the same level as the Buckeyes and Tigers, and my simulations have Bowling Green covering 66 percent of the time.

The best of the number is gone, but there's still value going against a Bowling Green team that looks helpless defensively. First-year coach Mike Jinks, after his team's 77-3 loss (not a misprint) to Memphis, lamented that he can't "go to the waiver wire" and get new players. Eastern Michigan (3-1) is off to its best start since 1995. The road team has covered five of the past six in this series.