Austin Appelby gets the start at quarterback with Luke Del Rio out for the Gators. Appelby wasn't very good at Purdue and there is no reason to think he will play well in the SEC. Florida has played much weaker competition in the first three weeks of the season and they have no business being less than 7-point road dogs at Tennessee. Josh Dobbs and the Volunteers are going to beat the Gators for the first time in 11 years. I have the Vols as 8-point favorites in my simulations.

We've got a lot of trends supporting the Gators at Tennessee, beginning with winning the last 11 meetings. We've also got Vols coach Butch Jones lacking that marquee SEC win. Ex-Purdue QB Austin Appleby takes over for injured Luke Del Rio. But I like the attitude I'm seeing out of Florida lately, especially going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games. There has been a major culture change at Florida under Jim McElwain. So far the Gators defense has been stingy, albeit against weak opponents, allowing just 4.7 ppg and 129 ypg. Tennessee will get its points, but I give the Gators a great shot to be competitive.

The Volunteers haven’t beaten the Gators in 11 years -- this alone makes this game tricky from an ATS perspective. It’s a rivalry game, and a lot of logic and history gets thrown out. But, if we keep it strictly between the lines, you’ll see how Tennessee has a great chance to end that streak. The Gators are good along the offensive line and have a great run game. The issue is they’re one-dimensional, even more so now that Luke Del Rio is injured. So breaking in a new quarterback in a rivalry game doesn’t bode well for their chances.

The Gators have become a more defensive-oriented team over the past couple seasons, which is why the Under has cashed in seven of the team's last 10 games. With Florida quarterback Luke Del Rio sidelined with a sprained knee, the team will be more offensively-challenged than usual heading to Tennessee on Saturday. My simulations show a low-scoring conference matchup that goes Under 78 percent of the time with a projected 32 total points scored.