You could argue Oklahoma has the highest team rating coming into the season and would be favored over any team on a neutral site. That's how stacked they are as they return QB Baker Mayfield and RB Samaje Perine, who helped the Sooners average 43.5 points and 530 yards-per-game last season. Houston's all-purpose QB, Greg Ward Jr., proved on last season's 13-1 team that the Cougars deserve to be in final four discussions. They averaged 40.4 points and ended the year with a rather easy 38-24 win as 7.5-point dogs against Florida State in the Peach Bowl. However, I see some issues early on for Houston this year because it has four new O-line starters and the top three RBs are also gone. This is a team that averaged 235 rushing yards ast year. That's the angle I'm going with to make me lay points in the Cougars' backyard. The Sooners are simply more polished out of the gate. The 10's are all gone, but I'm still comfortable laying 11.5.

The Sooners have drawn some heavy action, as universal openers of -10 were pushed as high as -13 in many markets earlier this week. This spawned some action on Houston, and knocked the number to -11.5 at nearly all outlets. I think those who are quick to jump on the Sooners are overlooking the Cougars, a mistake many of their opponents made last year. On paper, this might look like a major-conference giant against a Group of Five upstart but, the more I analyze the matchup, the gap isn’t nearly as big as you might want to believe. Quarterbacks Greg Ward Jr. of Houston and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield are both legitimate Heisman candidates surrounded by a wealth of talent. This is a matchup of two legitimate top-10 teams, and I expect both to pick up where they left off last season. As such, there is huge value on a home underdog in Houston that is grossly undervalued in this spread.