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Expert Picks
Arkansas State hosts Toledo in a rematch of a game they lost 37-7 in 2015. Arkansas State lost Fredi Knighten to graduation, but they actually improved at the quarterback position with Chad Voytik and Justice Hansen. Voytik is a transer from Pitt with plenty of experience and Hansen was one of Oklahoma's top recruits from community college. Arkansas State returns an experienced offensive line that will provide the edge in this game. Toledo is the trendy dog play but Arkansas State is the sharp side.
In the post-Fredi Knighten era, Arkansas State Wolves will aim to move forward collectively. To open the season the Red Wolves host Toledo trying to avenge last year's 37-7 loss. Knighten got hurt in that game, contributing to the blowout. While the Rockets did lose quarterback Philip Ely to graduation, they still have dynamic tailback Kareem Hunt at their disposal. This may seem like a revenge spot for the Wolves, but I remember the great defense the Rockets played in last year's contest. Expect Toledo to be prepared for the same schemes and cover a small number as an underdog.
The Rockets have a coaching transition, but continuity shouldn’t be a problem as longtime offensive coordinator Jason Candle takes over for Matt Campbell, who left to take the head job at Iowa State. In a conference rarely associated with defense, Toledo was tops in the MAC last year, allowing just 20.8 points per game (No. 21 nationally). The Rockets have an experienced offensive line and playmakers, including versatile back Kareem Hunt (973 rushing yards, 12 TDs last season). Arkansas State returns its entire line but is rebuilding at every skill position. The Rockets have thumped the Red Wolves twice in the past two seasons, including a 63-44 win in the 2015 Go Daddy Bowl and a 37-7 home win last season. Although the clubs have similar styles, these contests showed Toledo has the superior depth and overall talent advantage. I don’t see this changing in this game, and will take the underdog behind a nice key number.
Both Toledo and Arkansas State have high-scoring offenses and do not play much defense, so I expect to see a lot of points right out of the gate. My simulations show more than 70 points scored between them, which projects to an easy Over play here. These teams met last year with the Rockets cruising to an easy 37-7 victory. I see a much more competitive matchup this time with the Red Wolves keeping up on the scoreboard.