This one is painful, but I have no choice but to bet against my Kansas State Wildcats when my simulations have them losing by 18. Jesse Ertz gets the start for K-State, but he has two redshirt freshman protecting his blind side. K-State has 12 total freshman and sophomores starting this season opener. I love Bill Snyder and the Cats, but the combination of Christian McCaffrey and K-State's youth on the offensive line will be enough edge to let Stanford pull away and cover the 12.5 at home.

Stanford’s reputation for defensive prowess tends to overshadow its offensive production. The Cardinal averaged 39.5 points per game in their last six in 2015 and 37.8 ppg overall. Although they will be breaking in a new quarterback, they return record-setting Heisman candidate Christian McCaffrey and receiver Michael Rector is also a solid playmaker. Stanford’s power offense should have success against a Kansas State defense that was big-play prone and weak up the middle last year. The Wildcats yielded 50 or more points three times. Kansas State quarterback Jesse Ertz, who sat out injured last season, is expected to be a versatile dual-threat. Coach Bill Snyder also is noted for creative offensive schemes, and he should be able to game plan to maximize his offense’s strengths. Stanford has a young and inexperienced defensive front and could struggle early. I think there will be more offense in this one than most observers anticipate, and will recommend going Over the posted total.

Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey is an all-purpose dynamo who will affect this game as a rusher, receiver and returner. But if you're K-State, you're still facing a one-dimensional attack, with one guy to key on (McCaffrey). The Cardinal will be breaking in a new QB and a new set of receivers. The Wildcats are strong on both lines of scrimmage and will keep this one closer than many expect. Take the points.