The spread suggests that these teams are regarded as evenly matched. They aren’t. While Florida is a force on defense, it is lacking on O. As a result, it has not covered since eight games ago. Conversely, Alabama is on a 6-1-1 tear ATS at home, with straight-up wins over Kentucky and both Mississippis. Having gone Over in 10 of the last dozen outings in Tuscaloosa, the Tide has shown it can overcome sticky defense like they will encounter from the Gators.